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probability

Expert replies
by konan » Sun Feb 28, 2016 10:39 pm
In the game of Yahtzee, a "full house" occurs when a player rolls five fair dice and the result is two dice showing one number and the other three all showing another (three of a kind). What is the probability that a player will roll a full house on one roll of each of the three remaining dice if that player has already rolled a pair on the first two?

a.1/3
b.5/54
c.5/72
d.5/216
e.1/1296
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Source: — Problem Solving |

by [email protected] » Sun Feb 28, 2016 11:37 pm
Hi konan,

This is a quirky probability question Here's one way to solve this problem:

We're told that the first 2 dice already match, so we'll call them AA. It's the other 3 dice we have to deal with. To get a "full house", we need a set of 3 and a pair (the pair we start with COULD be part of the set of 3 though). We should map out the possibilities:

AA BBB = (5/6)(1/6)(1/6) = 5/216

AA ABB = (1/6)(5/6)(1/6) = 5/216

AA BAB = (5/6)(1/6)(1/6) = 5/216

AA BBA = (5/6)(1/6)(1/6) = 5/216

Total = 20/216 = 5/54

Final Answer: B

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by GMATGuruNY » Mon Feb 29, 2016 3:46 am
In the game of Yahtzee, a "full house" occurs when a player rolls five fair dice and the result is two dice showing one number and the other three all showing another (three of a kind). What is the probability that a player will roll a full house on one roll of each of the three remaining dice if that player has already rolled a pair on the first two?

A) 1/3

B) 5/54

C) 5/72

D) 5/216

E) 1/1296
Alternate approach:
P = (good outcomes)/(all possible outcomes).

It is given that the first 2 rolls are THE SAME.
Thus, we must consider outcomes only for the LAST 3 ROLLS.

All possible outcomes:
Numerical options for the 3rd roll = 6. (Any of the 6 numbers on the die.)
Numerical options for the 4th roll = 6. (Any of the 6 numbers on the die.)
Numerical options for the 5th roll = 6. (Any of the 6 numbers on the die.)
To combine these options, we multiply:
6*6*6 = 216.

Good outcome 1: Among the last 3 rolls, exactly one is the same as the first 2 rolls
Number of options for this roll = 3. (Any of the remaining 3 rolls could be the same as the first 2 rolls.)
Numerical options for the remaining two rolls = 5. (Of the 6 numbers on the die, any number but that of the other 3 rolls.)
To combine these options, we multiply:
3*5 = 15.

Good outcome 2: The last 3 rolls are the same, but a different number from the first 2 rolls
Numerical options for the last 3 rolls = 5. (Of the 6 numbers on the die, any number but that of the first 2 rolls.).

Thus:
P(full house) = (15 + 5)/216 = 20/216 = 10/108 = 5/54.

The correct answer is B.
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by regor60 » Tue Mar 01, 2016 6:58 am
This reads as each of the remaining three dice are thrown individually, which isn't the way I've played the game in the past.

If the three dice are thrown as a group, I wonder what the equivalent answer is ? I came up with 5/12
Last edited by regor60 on Tue Mar 01, 2016 8:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
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by GMATGuruNY » Tue Mar 01, 2016 8:15 am
regor60 wrote:This reads as each of the remaining three dice are thrown individually, which isn't the way I've played the game in the past.

If the three dice are thrown as a group, I wonder what the equivalent answer is ? I came up with 5/18
Whether the remaining dice are rolled one at a time or all at once, the probability is the same.

To illustrate:
If two dice are rolled, what is the probability of getting exactly one 3?

One at a time:
P(1st roll is 3 and 2nd roll is not 3) = 1/6 * 5/6 = 5/36.
P(1st roll is not 3 and 2nd roll is 3) = 5/6 * 1/6 = 5/36.
Since either case is a favorable outcome, we ADD the fractions:
5/36 + 5/36 = 10/36 = 5/18.

Both at once:
Total number of possible rolls = 6*6 = 36.
Ways that the pair formed by the die on the left and the die on the right will yield exactly one 3:
3-1, 3-2, 3-4, 3-5, 3-6, 1-3, 2-3, 4-3, 5-3, 6-3 --> 10 ways.
Of 36 possible rolls, 10 have exactly one 3.
Thus, P(exactly one 3) = 10/36 = 5/18.

Whether the two dice are rolled one at a time or both at once, the result is the same:
P(exactly one 3) = 5/18.
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by Matt@VeritasPrep » Tue Mar 01, 2016 11:01 pm
regor60 wrote:This reads as each of the remaining three dice are thrown individually, which isn't the way I've played the game in the past.

If the three dice are thrown as a group, I wonder what the equivalent answer is ? I came up with 5/12
It doesn't actually matter: throwing the dice together doesn't affect the result of each individual die. (They're independent.) Source: I used to play (and lose!) a lot of Yahtzee as a kid myself.
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