Flower Shop Probability Question

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Flower Shop Probability Question

by amirhakimi » Mon Nov 04, 2013 2:47 am
A florist has 2 azaleas, 3 buttercups, and 4 petunias. She puts two flowers together at random in a bouquet. However, the customer calls and says that she does not want two of the same flower. What is the probability that the florist does not have to change the bouquet?

Answer is [spoiler]13/18[/spoiler]
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by amirhakimi » Mon Nov 04, 2013 2:58 am
I've used the following method but ended up with a wrong answer.

Here is what I've done:

P(a)= 1-P(not a)

P(not a)= P(2 azaleas) OR P(3 buttercups) OR P(4 petunias)

P(2 azaleas)= (Combination of taking 2 from 2)/(Combination of taking 2 from 6)=1/15
P(3 buttercups)= (Combination of taking 2 from 3)/(Combination of taking 2 from 6)=3/15
P(4 petunias)= (Combination of taking 2 from 4)/(Combination of taking 2 from 6)=6/15

P (not a)= 1/15 + 3/15 + 6/15 = 10/15

P(a)= 1- 10/15 = 5/15

Can you please help me find the flaw in my reasoning?

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by GMATGuruNY » Mon Nov 04, 2013 3:44 am
A florist has 2 azaleas, 3 buttercups, and 4 petunias. She puts two flowers together at random in a bouquet. However, the customer calls and says that she does not want two of the same flower. What is the probability that the florist does not have to change the bouquet?
Approach 1:

P(2 different flowers) = 1 - P(2 of the same flower).

P(2 azaleas):
P(1st flower is an azalea) = 2/9. (Of the 9 flowers, 2 are azaleas.)
P(2nd flower is an azalea) = 1/8. (Of the 8 remaining flowers, 1 is an azalea.)
Since we want both events to happen, we multiply the fractions:
2/9 * 1/8 = 1/36.

P(2 buttercups):
P(1st flower is a buttercup) = 3/9. (Of the 9 flowers, 3 are buttercups.)
P(2nd flower is a buttercup) = 2/8. (Of the 8 remaining flowers, 2 are buttercups.)
Since we want both events to happen, we multiply the fractions:
3/9 * 2/8 = 1/12.

P(2 petunias):
P(1st flower is a petunia) = 4/9. (Of the 9 flowers, 4 are petunias.)
P(2nd flower is a petunia) = 3/8. (Of the 8 remaining flowers, 3 are petunias.)
Since we want both events to happen, we multiply the fractions:
4/9 * 3/8 = 1/6.

Since any of the above outcomes would yield 2 of the same flower, we add the fractions:
P(2 of the same flower) = 1/36 + 1/12 + 1/6 = 10/36 = 5/18.

Thus, P(2 different flowers) = 1 - 5/18 = [spoiler]13/18[/spoiler].

Approach 2:

Case 1: Azalea on the first pick, different flower on the second pick
P(1st flower is an azalea) = 2/9. (Of the 9 flowers, 2 are azaleas.)
P(2nd flower is not an azalea) = 7/8. (Of the 8 remaining flowers, 7 are not azaleas.)
Since we want both events to happen, we multiply the fractions:
2/9 * 7/8 = 7/36.

Case 2: Buttercup on the first pick, different flower on the second pick
P(1st flower is a buttercup) = 3/9. (Of the 9 flowers, 3 are buttercups.)
P(2nd flower is not a buttercup) = 6/8. (Of the 8 remaining flowers, 6 are not buttercups.)
Since we want both events to happen, we multiply the fractions:
3/9 * 6/8 = 9/36.

Case 3: Petunia on the first pick, different flower on the second pick
P(1st flower is a petunia) = 4/9. (Of the 9 flowers, 4 are petunias.)
P(2nd flower is not a petunia) = 5/8. (Of the 8 remaining flowers, 5 are not petunias.)
Since we want both events to happen, we multiply the fractions:
4/9 * 5/8 = 10/36.

Since any of the above outcomes would yield 2 different types of flowers, we add the fractions:
7/36 + 9/36 + 10/36 = 26/36 = [spoiler]13/18[/spoiler].
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by GMATGuruNY » Mon Nov 04, 2013 3:59 am
amirhakimi wrote:I've used the following method but ended up with a wrong answer.

Here is what I've done:

P(a)= 1-P(not a)

P(not a)= P(2 azaleas) OR P(3 buttercups) OR P(4 petunias)

P(2 azaleas)= (Combination of taking 2 from 2)/(Combination of taking 2 from 6)=1/15
P(3 buttercups)= (Combination of taking 2 from 3)/(Combination of taking 2 from 6)=3/15
P(4 petunias)= (Combination of taking 2 from 4)/(Combination of taking 2 from 6)=6/15[/color]

P (not a)= 1/15 + 3/15 + 6/15 = 10/15

P(a)= 1- 10/15 = 5/15

Can you please help me find the flaw in my reasoning?
What is the reasoning behind the denominators in red?
Here's how we could solve with combinatorics.

P(2 different flowers) = 1 - P(2 of the same flower).

Ways to choose 2 FLOWERS:
Total number of ways to choose 2 flowers from 9 options = 9C2 = 36.

Way to choose 2 of the SAME FLOWER:
Total number of paris that can formed from 2 azaleas = 2C2 = 1.
Total number of pairs that can formed from 3 buttercups = 3C2 = 3.
Total number of pairs that can formed from 4 petunias = 4C2 = 6.
Thus:
Total number of ways to choose 2 of the same flower = 1+3+6 = 10.

P(choosing 2 of the same flower) = (total ways to choose 2 of the same flower)/(total ways to choose 2 flowers) = 10/36 = 5/18.
Thus:
P(choosing 2 different flowers) = 1 - 5/18 = [spoiler]13/18[/spoiler].
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by amirhakimi » Mon Nov 04, 2013 5:18 am
How could I made the silly mistake to count total flowers 6 instead of 9!

Thanks for showing me my silly mistake :)

P(a)= 1-P(not a)

P(not a)= P(2 azaleas) OR P(3 buttercups) OR P(4 petunias)

P(2 azaleas)= (Combination of taking 2 from 2)/(Combination of taking 2 from 9)=1/36
P(3 buttercups)= (Combination of taking 2 from 3)/(Combination of taking 2 from 9)=3/36
P(4 petunias)= (Combination of taking 2 from 4)/(Combination of taking 2 from 9)=6/36

P (not a)= 1/36 + 3/36 + 6/36 = 10/36

P(a)= 1- 10/36 = [spoiler]26/36 or 13/18[/spoiler]