Permutation/ Combination: In a quiz,...

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Permutation/ Combination: In a quiz,...

by euro » Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:21 am
In a quiz, a contestant is asked 10 questions, to which he should answer true or false. He should answer at least 8 questions correctly to move to the next level of the quiz. If he answers all the questions, what is the probability that he does not proceed to the next level?

a) 7/128
b) 17/28
c) 121/128
d) 11/28
e) 10/128


Official Answer is C
Source: — Data Sufficiency |

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by debmalya_dutta » Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:44 am
euro wrote:In a quiz, a contestant is asked 10 questions, to which he should answer true or false. He should answer at least 8 questions correctly to move to the next level of the quiz. If he answers all the questions, what is the probability that he does not proceed to the next level?

a) 7/128
b) 17/28
c) 121/128
d) 11/28
e) 10/128


Official Answer is C
total number of outcomes = 2 ^10 = 16 * 16 *2
Total number of favourable outcomes = 8 correct + 9 Correct + 10 correct = 10C8+10C9+1 = 56
Prob = 56/ 16 * 16 *2 = 7/128
@Deb

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by Ian Stewart » Fri Sep 17, 2010 12:02 pm
euro wrote:In a quiz, a contestant is asked 10 questions, to which he should answer true or false. He should answer at least 8 questions correctly to move to the next level of the quiz. If he answers all the questions, what is the probability that he does not proceed to the next level?

a) 7/128
b) 17/28
c) 121/128
d) 11/28
e) 10/128


Official Answer is C
The solution in the post above is surely the intended solution here, but the wording of this question is awful. Where is it from? In order to answer this question, you need to know the probability that the contestant answers each question correctly. Perhaps the contestant understands the content of the quiz extremely well, and has a nearly 100% chance of answering each question correctly (and thus has a very high probability of advancing to the next level), or perhaps the contestant is guessing at random, and has a 50% chance of answering each question correctly (and thus has a low probability of advancing). Obviously the question designer intends for the probability of a correct answer to be 50% on each question, but that needs to be stated in the question itself; otherwise it can't be answered.
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by euro » Fri Sep 17, 2010 9:29 pm
Ian Stewart wrote: The solution in the post above is surely the intended solution here, but the wording of this question is awful. Where is it from? In order to answer this question, you need to know the probability that the contestant answers each question correctly. Perhaps the contestant understands the content of the quiz extremely well, and has a nearly 100% chance of answering each question correctly (and thus has a very high probability of advancing to the next level), or perhaps the contestant is guessing at random, and has a 50% chance of answering each question correctly (and thus has a low probability of advancing). Obviously the question designer intends for the probability of a correct answer to be 50% on each question, but that needs to be stated in the question itself; otherwise it can't be answered.
In the very first line, the problem reads "...to which he should answer true or false." It is also mentioned in the problem that the contestant attempts all the 10 questions.
We need to determine: [ 1- P( no. of ways contestant can get AT LEAST 8 correct answers)]

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by sumit.sinha » Sat Sep 18, 2010 1:38 am
euro wrote:In a quiz, a contestant is asked 10 questions, to which he should answer true or false. He should answer at least 8 questions correctly to move to the next level of the quiz. If he answers all the questions, what is the probability that he does not proceed to the next level?

a) 7/128
b) 17/28
c) 121/128
d) 11/28
e) 10/128


Official Answer is C
My Explanation:

Let R - right answer and W - wrong answer
P(R) = 1/2 and P(W) = 1/2
First find P1, the probability of his proceeding to the next level.

P1 = either exactly 2 questions wrong OR exactly 1 question wrong OR zero question wrong

Case of exactly 2 question wrong:
RRRRRRRRWW - probability of this sequence = ((1/2)^10)
total possible arrangement of this sequence = ((!10)/(!8*!2)) -----taking help of anagram-ism.
P(exactly 2 question wrong) = ((1/2)^10) * ((!10)/(!8*!2))

Case of exactly 1 question wrong:
RRRRRRRRRW - probability of this sequence = ((1/2)^10)
total possible arrangement of this sequence = ((!10)/(!9*!1)) -----taking help of anagram-ism.
P(exactly 1 question wrong) = ((1/2)^10) * ((!10)/(!9*!1))

Case of zero question wrong:
RRRRRRRRRR - probability of this sequence = ((1/2)^10)
total possible arrangement of this sequence = ((!10)/(!10)) =1
P(zero question wrong) = ((1/2)^10)


P1 = (((1/2)^10) * ((!10)/(!8*!2)) ) + (((1/2)^10) * ((!10)/(!9*!1)) ) + ((1/2)^10)) [adding the three cases]
=((1/2)^10)[45 + 10 + 1]
=56/1024
=7/128
i.e probability of his proceeding to the next level, P1 = 7/128

Therefore, probability that he does not proceed to the next level = 1- probability that he proceed to the next level
=1-(7/128)
121/128

CORRECT ANSWER - C

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by euro » Sat Sep 18, 2010 1:46 am
Superb response Sumit! :D
Thank you for typing out the detailed explanation. It is truly helpful. :D

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by Ian Stewart » Sat Sep 18, 2010 7:16 am
euro wrote: In the very first line, the problem reads "...to which he should answer true or false."
That doesn't mean the contestant has a 0.5 probability of answering each question correctly. If the contestant knew the quiz content perfectly, and had a 100% chance of answering each question correctly, the answer would clearly be 0. If instead he or she had a 0.9 probability of answering each question correctly, the answer would be

1 - [10C2 * (0.9)^8 * (0.1)^2 + 10C1 * (0.9)^9 * (0.1)^1 + (0.9)^10]

for example. The solutions above assume the contestant has a 0.5 probability of answering correctly, but that's not something we're told. It is not a well-worded question.
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