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New Yorkers

by adi_800 » Fri Jul 30, 2010 7:51 pm
Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer. The three New York winters with the lowest average temperature were followed by summers in which the average temperature was extremely high, yet the two hottest New York winters were also followed by summers whose average temperatures were extremely high.

Which of the following describes the greatest flaw in the author's reasoning?
A. New York winters and summers are not necessarily representative of winters and summers in other locations.
B. The author appeals to a previous argument that contains circular reasoning.
C. The evidence presented is insufficient to decide the matter with full certainty.
D. A causal relationship is being assumed without being proven.
E. The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute.
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by reply2spg » Fri Jul 30, 2010 8:48 pm
IMO D
adi_800 wrote:Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer. The three New York winters with the lowest average temperature were followed by summers in which the average temperature was extremely high, yet the two hottest New York winters were also followed by summers whose average temperatures were extremely high.

Which of the following describes the greatest flaw in the author's reasoning?
A. New York winters and summers are not necessarily representative of winters and summers in other locations.
B. The author appeals to a previous argument that contains circular reasoning.
C. The evidence presented is insufficient to decide the matter with full certainty.
D. A causal relationship is being assumed without being proven.
E. The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute.
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by reply2spg » Fri Jul 30, 2010 9:16 pm
As usual I know and confirmed that I am wrong, can somebody please help me understand what does E mean?
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by amritashwar_lal2k » Fri Jul 30, 2010 9:30 pm
IMO C

The argument is to convince that the conclusion : "New Yorker's belief that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer" is false.

The evidences are

1) three New York winters with the lowest average temperature => summers with average temperature was extremely high

2) two hottest New York winters => summers whose average temperatures were extremely high

The two evidences doesn't strenghtens the author's stand, as the evidences are inconclusive.
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by Haaress » Fri Jul 30, 2010 10:31 pm
Is E the correct answer.
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by deepakdewani » Fri Jul 30, 2010 10:47 pm
Should be E.
Greed is good!
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by FightWithGMAT » Sat Jul 31, 2010 5:49 am
adi_800 wrote:Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer. The three New York winters with the lowest average temperature were followed by summers in which the average temperature was extremely high, yet the two hottest New York winters were also followed by summers whose average temperatures were extremely high.

Which of the following describes the greatest flaw in the author's reasoning?
A. New York winters and summers are not necessarily representative of winters and summers in other locations.
B. The author appeals to a previous argument that contains circular reasoning.
C. The evidence presented is insufficient to decide the matter with full certainty.
D. A causal relationship is being assumed without being proven.
E. The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute.
narrowed down to C and E.
A: we dont care about other locations
B: No, it is not a circular reasoning for sure.
D: it is not a casual, but a conditional relationship.

Now,

I would pick C. The author produced examples to show that what NYorkers believe is False. He wants to validate the belief. But he seems to be failing in that.
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by diebeatsthegmat » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:16 pm
adi_800 wrote:Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer. The three New York winters with the lowest average temperature were followed by summers in which the average temperature was extremely high, yet the two hottest New York winters were also followed by summers whose average temperatures were extremely high.

Which of the following describes the greatest flaw in the author's reasoning?
A. New York winters and summers are not necessarily representative of winters and summers in other locations.
B. The author appeals to a previous argument that contains circular reasoning.
C. The evidence presented is insufficient to decide the matter with full certainty.
D. A causal relationship is being assumed without being proven.
E. The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute.
E should be the answer. what is the answer?
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by goyalsau » Fri Sep 24, 2010 12:57 am
one more E
what the OA?
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by arpita@gurome » Fri Sep 24, 2010 1:02 am
As stated it is a reasoning flaw question.

Conclusion - Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer.

Let's do some prephrasing. The author of the argument says that extreme temperatures in winter lead to extreme temperatures in next summer, and then provides two examples one has very low winters and another has high winter temperatures and both lead high temperature summers!! Thus refuting his / her own conclusion!
One reason she did this mistake might be due to the fact that she considers only very cold winters and very hot summers as extremes, but actually hot winters and cold summers are also extremes!

Now we have a grip of what is going on in this question stimulus let's look at choices:

A - Out of scope, need to focus on NY
B - No circular reasoning is evident. This is an enticing choice since a lot of logic errors can be attributed to circular logic.
C - Given the facts it is a pretty good argument. The facts seem pretty solid, still let us keep it.
D - The evidence is proving the relationship false. A causal relationship is being assumed although it is proved to be false. Hence do not consider.
E - This fits the prephrase smack on! It breaks the logic of the argument.

We have two contenders - C is weak as explained above whereas E is a clear fit.

Hence choose E
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by vishalj » Fri Sep 24, 2010 8:40 am
I chose C. The reason I didn't pick E because I thought that the words were jumbled. If the choice were " The evidence presented refutes the claim it is intended to support", I would have picked it. I thought that the author delivered a claim and then evidence to support the claim. However, the last evidence refuted it.

Did I miss something?

E. The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute.
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by samareshgupte » Sun Mar 25, 2012 7:28 pm
vishalj wrote:I chose C. The reason I didn't pick E because I thought that the words were jumbled. If the choice were " The evidence presented refutes the claim it is intended to support", I would have picked it. I thought that the author delivered a claim and then evidence to support the claim. However, the last evidence refuted it.

Did I miss something?

E. The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute.
The author is trying not to support but to refute, as evident from the phrase 'falsely believe that', the claim.

moreover, both cold and warm winters result in extreme summers. Hence New Yorker are right in believing extreme summers will soon follow.

E is a stronger contender than C. C states about insufficiency. Let us assume C is correct for a while. If the argument lacks evidence, what is it that will make the argument more complete? Perhaps nothing.


Hope that helps.
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by tanviet » Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:46 am
arpita@gurome wrote:As stated it is a reasoning flaw question.

Conclusion - Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer.

Let's do some prephrasing. The author of the argument says that extreme temperatures in winter lead to extreme temperatures in next summer, and then provides two examples one has very low winters and another has high winter temperatures and both lead high temperature summers!! Thus refuting his / her own conclusion!
One reason she did this mistake might be due to the fact that she considers only very cold winters and very hot summers as extremes, but actually hot winters and cold summers are also extremes!

Now we have a grip of what is going on in this question stimulus let's look at choices:

A - Out of scope, need to focus on NY
B - No circular reasoning is evident. This is an enticing choice since a lot of logic errors can be attributed to circular logic.
C - Given the facts it is a pretty good argument. The facts seem pretty solid, still let us keep it.
D - The evidence is proving the relationship false. A causal relationship is being assumed although it is proved to be false. Hence do not consider.
E - This fits the prephrase smack on! It breaks the logic of the argument.

We have two contenders - C is weak as explained above whereas E is a clear fit.

Hence choose E
Thank you expert. This is very hard question and will appeare on gmat at the end.
I appreciate your prephrasing process. I apply prephrasing and see effective

Prephrasing is particularly effective for questions which have the correct answers which are based on an assumption. is this correct? pls , tell me more of your prethinking process. pls, tell me the steps you do when you see a CR problem.

for this question and other question, prethinking is key to finding the answer.
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by killer1387 » Tue Mar 27, 2012 4:23 am
STRAIGHT E
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by venkart89 » Tue Mar 27, 2012 9:24 pm
Option E
800 is my lucky number.

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