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Deer Hunters, Explain a discrepancy [Manhattan CR guide,]

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Deer Hunters, Explain a discrepancy [Manhattan CR guide,]

by ChessWriter » Sun Jan 29, 2012 3:48 am
Due to the increase in traffic accidents caused by deer in the state, the governor last year reintroduced a longer deer hunting season to encourage recreational hunting of the animals.The governor expected the longer hunting season to decrease the number of deer and therefore decrease the number of accidents. However, this year the number of accidents caused by deer has increased substantially since the reintroduction of the longer deer hunting season.

Which of the following if true, would best explain the increase in traffic accidents caused by deer?

(A). Many recreational hunters hunt only once or twice per hunting season, regardless of the length of the season.
(B). The deer in the state have become accustomed to living in close proximity to humans and are often easy prey for hunters as a result
(C). Most automobile accidents involving deer result from cars swerving to avoid deer, and leave the deer unharmed.
(D). The number of drivers in the state has been gradually increasing over the past several years
(E). A heavily used new highway was recently built directly through the state's largest forest, which is the primary habitat of the state's deer population.
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by ChessWriter » Sun Jan 29, 2012 4:09 am
This question is from the Chapter 8 : Minor question types in the Manhattan Critical Reasoning guide, Question number 6, Page 186

The Official Answer is (E). A heavily used new highway was recently built directly through the state's largest forest, which is the primary habitat of the state's deer population.

I was confused between options (D) and (E) and eventually picked (D) which turned out to be wrong. However, I am not satisfied with the explanation the Manhattan guide provided.

Here is the official explanation :
(D).WRONG. The number of drivers in the state has been gradually increasing over the past several years
This answer choice would contribute to an explanation of a gradual increase in traffic accidents involving deer over the last several years. However, it does not explain a substantial increase in accidents from last year to this year.Both the extent of the increase and the time frame serve to make this answer choice an unsatisfactory explanation of the observed rise in accidents.

This explanation hinges on the word SUBSTANTIAL increase. However the question hasn't told us whether the per-year increase was substantial even before the deer hunting season was lengthened. The question merely states that there was in increase in traffic incidents last year with no indication about its extent.

Moreover, the option says that the number of drivers HAS BEEN gradually increasing over the past several years - This means that the number is still increasing. That would explain the time frame. To define the extent of the increase, we'd have to tangibly know the meaning of 'substantial' here.

(E).CORRECT. A heavily used new highway was recently built directly through the state's largest forest, which is the primary habitat of the state's deer population.
A new highway system recently built directly through the primary habitat of the state's deer habitat would provide a specific explanation as to why the number of the accidents involving deer has increased. It also explains the time frame of the increase.

Does this explanation really explain the time frame? A highway is not something that gets built in a day or even a month. the word RECENTLY could equally mean this year or the last year. So I don't think it explains the time frame as the official explantion says.
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by GMATGuruNY » Sun Jan 29, 2012 8:15 am
ChessWriter wrote:This question is from the Chapter 8 : Minor question types in the Manhattan Critical Reasoning guide, Question number 6, Page 186

The Official Answer is (E). A heavily used new highway was recently built directly through the state's largest forest, which is the primary habitat of the state's deer population.

I was confused between options (D) and (E) and eventually picked (D) which turned out to be wrong. However, I am not satisfied with the explanation the Manhattan guide provided.

Here is the official explanation :
(D).WRONG. The number of drivers in the state has been gradually increasing over the past several years
This answer choice would contribute to an explanation of a gradual increase in traffic accidents involving deer over the last several years. However, it does not explain a substantial increase in accidents from last year to this year.Both the extent of the increase and the time frame serve to make this answer choice an unsatisfactory explanation of the observed rise in accidents.

This explanation hinges on the word SUBSTANTIAL increase. However the question hasn't told us whether the per-year increase was substantial even before the deer hunting season was lengthened. The question merely states that there was in increase in traffic incidents last year with no indication about its extent.

Moreover, the option says that the number of drivers HAS BEEN gradually increasing over the past several years - This means that the number is still increasing. That would explain the time frame. To define the extent of the increase, we'd have to tangibly know the meaning of 'substantial' here.

(E).CORRECT. A heavily used new highway was recently built directly through the state's largest forest, which is the primary habitat of the state's deer population.
A new highway system recently built directly through the primary habitat of the state's deer habitat would provide a specific explanation as to why the number of the accidents involving deer has increased. It also explains the time frame of the increase.

Does this explanation really explain the time frame? A highway is not something that gets built in a day or even a month. the word RECENTLY could equally mean this year or the last year. So I don't think it explains the time frame as the official explantion says.
D: drivers in the ENTIRE STATE

versus

E: a highway built through the PRIMARY HABITAT of the state's deer population
-------------------------------------------------------------------
D: a change over the past SEVERAL YEARS

versus

E: a change that took place RECENTLY
-------------------------------------------------------------------
D: the number of drivers has been GRADUALLY increasing

versus

E: a HEAVILY USED NEW highway
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The facts in E offer a better explanation for why THIS YEAR the number of DEER-RELATED accidents has increased SUBSTANTIALLY.
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by VivianKerr » Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:23 pm
Hey ChessWriter,

Happy to offer my thoughts! This one is less of an argument and more of a straightforward premise, but we still will need to find the answer that best matches the reasoning behind the premise.

Conclusion: Longer deer season will decrease # of deer and # of accidents.

Evidence: Deer causing more accidents.

Assumption: Longer season = fewer deer overall

Question: Why are there more accidents?

Prediction: More deer, more drivers

A - This weakens the conclusion, but doesn't answer the question.
B - Potentially, but kinda weak...deer wouldn't necessarily come closer to cars just because they are used to people and the "easy prey" is irrelevant
C - Whether or not the deer are harmed doesn't explain WHY there are more accidents
D - Potentially...This would explain why there are more accidents...but uses "gradually" which isn't quite as strong...
E - Potentially...This would bring deer + drivers in closer proximity than D. Notice the strong language "heavily used", "directly through", and "primary."

My choice: E
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by ArunangsuSahu » Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:36 pm
(E)
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by saleem.kh » Tue Jan 31, 2012 5:47 am
ChessWriter wrote:Due to the increase in traffic accidents caused by deer in the state, the governor last year reintroduced a longer deer hunting season to encourage recreational hunting of the animals.The governor expected the longer hunting season to decrease the number of deer and therefore decrease the number of accidents. However, this year the number of accidents caused by deer has increased substantially since the reintroduction of the longer deer hunting season.

Which of the following if true, would best explain the increase in traffic accidents caused by deer?

(A). Many recreational hunters hunt only once or twice per hunting season, regardless of the length of the season.
(B). The deer in the state have become accustomed to living in close proximity to humans and are often easy prey for hunters as a result
(C). Most automobile accidents involving deer result from cars swerving to avoid deer, and leave the deer unharmed.
(D). The number of drivers in the state has been gradually increasing over the past several years
(E). A heavily used new highway was recently built directly through the state's largest forest, which is the primary habitat of the state's deer population.
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by lunarpower » Mon Feb 06, 2012 4:33 am
i received a pm on this one.
the experts above have handled this problem nicely; i have little to add.
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