People Predict

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People Predict

by goelmohit2002 » Fri Mar 13, 2009 10:21 am
Hi All,

In the below question the OA is [spoiler]"D"[/spoiler].

Can somebody please help me understand what the question/argument is ?

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When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.


Thanks
Mohit
Source: — Critical Reasoning |

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by S0laris » Fri Mar 13, 2009 12:20 pm
cool question !
the only reason I didn't choose D is that it sounds too appealing to real life, and this type of choices are often a trap on gmat )) so, PEO sometimes is deceptive )
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by goelmohit2002 » Fri Mar 13, 2009 12:28 pm
Can you please tell what the argument want to say....i am not able to decrypt its cryptic language. :-(

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by sg1928 » Fri Mar 13, 2009 12:35 pm
if some one can explain the question, it would be really great. I am completely lost. I couldn't understand the argument at all.

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by S0laris » Fri Mar 13, 2009 1:45 pm
I'll try

interpret: Mike works hard, earn money, and buy a sport car. Thus Mike predicts that by working hard it is possible to buy something he wants(because he learned it one time). Then Mike meet Ben who has expensive house, then Mike concludes, basing on own experience, that Ben works hard, earns big money, and as aresult buys house(in fact, Ben gets house by stealing money or by getting inheritance). In addition, Ben may believe that there is no way to pile up money by working hard and so forth.......(ben beliefs: it's unlikely to buy sprort car unless steal money or get ingeritence, because(maybe) he(Ben) tryied at once and it didn't work out, thus Ben learned his point of view of getting something expensive).....
Conclusion: it is that results admit of more than one interpretation.

hope it helps[/url]
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by goelmohit2002 » Tue Mar 17, 2009 12:09 am
Thanks Solaris. Understood the argument with the help of your example.

But how does "D" flows logically from the above sports car example that you gave.

Can you please explain.

Thanks
Mohit

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by S0laris » Tue Mar 17, 2009 9:31 am
goelmohit2002 wrote:Thanks Solaris. Understood the argument with the help of your example.

But how does "D" flows logically from the above sports car example that you gave.
The thing is that there are numerous ways to buy a sport car, and if one method worked out to one person effectively it doesn't mean that the other man can achieve the same results by the same method, Thus one prediction works differently to different persons because maybe depends on many circumstances. Thus prediction is often impossible.
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by gmat620 » Thu Mar 19, 2009 2:38 pm
""On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation. ""
This line alludes towards D...it says the practice of prediction and action is flawed and not well understood..

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by Brad.C » Sun May 15, 2016 6:46 am
another vote for D