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OG Question

by prachi18oct » Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:01 pm
Arecent report determined that although only 3 percent of drivers on Maryland highways equipped their vehicles
with radar detectors, 33 percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them.
Clearly, drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly
than are drivers who do not.
The conclusion drawn above depends on which of the following assumptions?
(A) Drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are less likely to be ticketed for exceeding the speed
limit than are drivers who do not.
(B) Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly
than are drivers who are not ticketed.
(C) The number of vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limitwas greater than the number of
vehicles that were equipped with radar detectors.
(D) Many of the vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limitwere ticketed more than once in the
time period covered by the report.
(E) Drivers on Maryland highways exceeded the speed limit more often than did drivers on other state
highways not covered in the report.


Now I narrowed to B & D Below is my thought over this :-

conclusion: drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly

Premise: (1)3% of maryland dr have radar detectors.
(2)33% of all speeding tickets were issued to drivers with vehicles equipped with radar.

Lets try to negate B:

Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are NOT more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who are not ticketed

As the conclusion has word "regularly" it means the drivers who exceed speed limits do so regularly.So B destroys the conclusion.

Negating D:

Many of the vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were NOT ticketed more than once in the time period covered by the report.

It looked close to me unless I took an example :

Now to prove that D is not neccessary for the conclusion to hold true , any one case should be enough.

1000 vehicles in Maryland - 30 equipped with radars
Say 90 speding tickets in the report - 33% are equipped with radars - 30. So it might be possible that each vehicle is ticked only once.So D is not an assumption.

Please correct me if I got it all wrong!
Source: — Critical Reasoning |

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by MartyMurray » Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:19 pm
A recent report determined that although only 3 percent of drivers on Maryland highways equipped their vehicles with radar detectors, 33 percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them. Clearly, drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who do not.

The conclusion drawn above depends on which of the following assumptions?

(A) Drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are less likely to be ticketed for exceeding the speed
limit than are drivers who do not.
(B) Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly
than are drivers who are not ticketed.
(C) The number of vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit was greater than the number of
vehicles that were equipped with radar detectors.
(D) Many of the vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were ticketed more than once in the
time period covered by the report.
(E) Drivers on Maryland highways exceeded the speed limit more often than did drivers on other state
highways not covered in the report.


Now I narrowed to B & D Below is my thought over this :-

conclusion: drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly

Premise: (1)3% of maryland dr have radar detectors.
(2)33% of all speeding tickets were issued to drivers with vehicles equipped with radar.

Lets try to negate B:

Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are NOT more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who are not ticketed

As the conclusion has word "regularly" it means the drivers who exceed speed limits do so regularly.So B destroys the conclusion.

Negating D:

Many of the vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were NOT ticketed more than once in the time period covered by the report.

It looked close to me unless I took an example :

Now to prove that D is not neccessary for the conclusion to hold true , any one case should be enough.

1000 vehicles in Maryland - 30 equipped with radars
Say 90 speding tickets in the report - 33% are equipped with radars - 30. So it might be possible that each vehicle is ticked only once.So D is not an assumption.

Please correct me if I got it all wrong!
That sounds fairly good.

At the same time, it seems to me that you did extra work and that your case only allowed the premises to be true without saying anything one way or the other about the conclusion. Maybe that's the point, but maybe you didn't need to make that point.

Check this out.

The conclusion was based upon the fact that the proportion of vehicles with radar detectors that were ticketed was way higher than the proportion of vehicles with radar detectors.

The conclusion is that this relationship between proportions indicates that people driving with radar detectors are more likely than are other drivers to speed regularly. This is not however exactly supported by the premises, because the data in the premises is made up of of one time instances. So to get from the premises to the conclusion, we need to extend single instances of speeding to patterns of regular speeding.

While, as you noticed, D gives us repeat instances for many of the same drivers, it STILL does not really connect single instances of speeding with patterns of regular speeding UNLESS assumption B is true and drivers who get tickets are more likely than are other drivers to be speeding even when they are not getting tickets.

So that's all you really needed to see to get the answer.
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by GMATGuruNY » Sun Feb 22, 2015 4:48 am
A recent report determined that although only three percent of drivers on Maryland highways equipped their vehicles with radar detectors, thirty-three percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them. Clearly, drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who do not.

The conclusion drawn above depends on which of the following assumptions?

(A) Drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are less likely to be ticketed for exceeding the speed limit than are drivers who do not.
(B) Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who are not ticketed.
(C) The number of vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit was greater than the number of vehicles that were equipped with radar detectors.
(D) Many of the vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were ticketed more than once in the time period covered by the report.
(E) Drivers on Maryland highways exceeded the speed limit more often than did drivers on other state highways not covered in the report.
.
This CR exhibits a language shift.
The premise is about drivers who get at least ONE -- and perhaps ONLY one -- speeding ticket.
The conclusion is about drivers who exceed the speed limit REGULARLY.
The argument assumes that there is a LINK between these two ideas: that a driver who gets at least ONE speeding ticket exceeds the speed limit REGULARLY.

The correct answer choice is WHAT MUST BE TRUE for the conclusion to be valid.
Apply the NEGATION TEST.
When the correct answer choice is REVERSED, the conclusion will be invalidated.
Any answer choice that fails this test can be eliminated.

Answer choice B negated: Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are LESS likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who are not ticketed.
The negation of B invalidates the conclusion that drivers with radar detectors speed regularly.
Thus, B is the assumption: WHAT MUST BE TRUE for the conclusion to be valid.

The correct answer is B.

Answer choice D, negated:
Many of the vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were NOT ticketed more than once.
Implication:
All of the other ticketed vehicles WERE ticketed more than once.
Here, the vehicles that received multiple tickets could STRENGTHEN the conclusion that drivers with radar detectors speed regularly.
Since the negation of D does not invalidate the conclusion, eliminate D.
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by RBBmba@2014 » Fri Sep 11, 2015 5:16 am
Hi Mitch - NOT able to COMPLETELY understand this CR. Could you please help in any way ?

Below are the some doubts I've -

(1) Per the argument, thirty-three percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them. So, if ONLY 1/3rd of ticketed vehicles have RADARS then how it's possible to EVEN conclude that drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who do not, in spite of the ASSUMPTION (re OA) ?

I think, if it were - 2/3rd (or AL LEAST 51%) of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped RADARS - then it'd make sense for this conclusion.

Can you please help me comprehend this ?

(2) In OA,NEGATION of MORE likely will mean either LESS likely or AS likely. Isn't it ?

(NO ISSUES to understand LESS likely part)

So, in case of AS likely, Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are AS likely to exceed the speed limit regularly AS are drivers who are not ticketed -- how the NEGATION shatters the conclusion here ? Kindly explain.

(In ASSUMPTION CR, I think, NEGATION should HOLD GOOD in ALL ASPECTS, NOT PARTIALLY -- correct me please if wrong!)

(3) Option D talks about VEHICLES ONLY. So, NOT able to understand how EXACTLY Option D is in line to establish the link between the TWO GROUPS -- CONVICTED DRIVERS and DRIVERS likely to exceed the speed limit regularly. Please clarify!

Kindly help.

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by GMATGuruNY » Sat Sep 12, 2015 3:55 am
RBBmba@2014 wrote:Hi Mitch - NOT able to COMPLETELY understand this CR. Could you please help in any way ?

Below are the some doubts I've -

(1) Per the argument, thirty-three percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them. So, if ONLY 1/3rd of ticketed vehicles have RADARS then how it's possible to EVEN conclude that drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who do not, in spite of the ASSUMPTION (re OA) ?

I think, if it were - 2/3rd (or AL LEAST 51%) of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped RADARS - then it'd make sense for this conclusion.

Can you please help me comprehend this ?
Let the total number of drivers = 1000.
Since 3% of drivers have radar detectors, the total number of drivers with radar detectors = (3/100)(1000) = 30, implying that the total number of drivers without radar detectors = 1000-30 = 970.

Let the total number of tickets = 100.
Since 33% of ticketed vehicles have radar detectors, the total number of ticketed vehicles with radar detectors = (33/100)(100) = 33, implying that the total number of ticketed vehicles without radar detectors = 100-33 = 67.

Resulting ratios:
(ticketed vehicles with radar detectors)/(total number of drivers with radar detectors) = 33/30.
(ticketed vehicles without radar detectors)/(total number of drivers without radar detectors) = 67/970.
Since 33/30 > 67/970, the resulting ratios seem to imply that drivers with radar detectors are more likely to speed.
(2) In OA,NEGATION of MORE likely will mean either LESS likely or AS likely. Isn't it ?

(NO ISSUES to understand LESS likely part)

So, in case of AS likely, Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are AS likely to exceed the speed limit regularly AS are drivers who are not ticketed -- how the NEGATION shatters the conclusion here ? Kindly explain.

(In ASSUMPTION CR, I think, NEGATION should HOLD GOOD in ALL ASPECTS, NOT PARTIALLY -- correct me please if wrong!)
A more precise negation of the OA:
Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are NOT more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who are not ticketed.
The negation of B invalidates the conclusion that the ticketed vehicles with radar detectors belong to drivers who are more likely to speed regularly.
(3) Option D talks about VEHICLES ONLY. So, NOT able to understand how EXACTLY Option D is in line to establish the link between the TWO GROUPS -- CONVICTED DRIVERS and DRIVERS likely to exceed the speed limit regularly. Please clarify!
Your concern here is valid.
Since D offers no information about the DRIVERS of the ticketed vehicles, this answer choice can be eliminated.
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by RBBmba@2014 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:20 pm
GMATGuruNY wrote:
RBBmba@2014 wrote:Hi Mitch - NOT able to COMPLETELY understand this CR. Could you please help in any way ?

Below are the some doubts I've -

(1) Per the argument, thirty-three percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them. So, if ONLY 1/3rd of ticketed vehicles have RADARS then how it's possible to EVEN conclude that drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who do not, in spite of the ASSUMPTION (re OA) ?

I think, if it were - 2/3rd (or AL LEAST 51%) of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped RADARS - then it'd make sense for this conclusion.

Can you please help me comprehend this ?
Let the total number of drivers = 1000.
Since 3% of drivers have radar detectors, the total number of drivers with radar detectors = (3/100)(1000) = 30, implying that the total number of drivers without radar detectors = 1000-30 = 970.

Let the total number of tickets = 100.
Since 33% of ticketed vehicles have radar detectors, the total number of ticketed vehicles with radar detectors = (33/100)(100) = 33, implying that the total number of ticketed vehicles without radar detectors = 100-33 = 67.

Resulting ratios:
(ticketed vehicles with radar detectors)/(total number of drivers with radar detectors) = 33/30.
(ticketed vehicles without radar detectors)/(total number of drivers without radar detectors) = 67/970.
Since 33/30 > 67/970, the resulting ratios seem to imply that drivers with radar detectors are more likely to speed.
Thanks Mitch for clarifying.
(1) But I guess, during test we won't have enough time to INTERPRET such arguments QUANTITATIVELY as you've done here. So, should we accept the SUCH arguments at face value, assuming as it appears on the test, it MUST have some logical sense ?

(2) Are there ANY OTHER way to INTERPRET such arguments under testing conditions ?
GMATGuruNY wrote:
(2) In OA,NEGATION of MORE likely will mean either LESS likely or AS likely. Isn't it ?

(NO ISSUES to understand LESS likely part)

So, in case of AS likely, Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are AS likely to exceed the speed limit regularly AS are drivers who are not ticketed -- how the NEGATION shatters the conclusion here ? Kindly explain.

(In ASSUMPTION CR, I think, NEGATION should HOLD GOOD in ALL ASPECTS, NOT PARTIALLY -- correct me please if wrong!)
A more precise negation of the OA:
Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are NOT more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who are not ticketed.
The negation of B invalidates the conclusion that the ticketed vehicles with radar detectors belong to drivers who are more likely to speed regularly.
Got that...absolutely!

(3) But what I'd like to know is that as NOT more likely includes the case of AS likely as well, so how the NEGATION would shatter the conclusion in case of AS likely consideration ? Could you please clarify ?

(4) Isn't it TRUE that in ASSUMPTION CR,NEGATION should HOLD GOOD in ALL ASPECTS, BUT NOT PARTIALLY ?

Kindly shed some light on this...

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by RBBmba@2014 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:45 am
Hi GMATGuruNY - could you please share your feedback to clarify my FOUR concerns above ?

Look forward to hear from you. Much thanks in advance!

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by RBBmba@2014 » Mon Nov 23, 2015 9:44 pm
Hi GMATGuruNY - Any update on my above FOUR concerns Sir?

Would much appreciate your feedback. Much thanks in advance!

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by GMATGuruNY » Sat Nov 28, 2015 3:59 am
RBBmba@2014 wrote:Thanks Mitch for clarifying.
(1) But I guess, during test we won't have enough time to INTERPRET such arguments QUANTITATIVELY as you've done here. So, should we accept the SUCH arguments at face value, assuming as it appears on the test, it MUST have some logical sense ?
Yes.
(2) Are there ANY OTHER way to INTERPRET such arguments under testing conditions ?
I tested numbers merely to illustrate why the argument links owning a radar detector to speeding.
But most readers will note this link without testing numbers.
Drivers with radar detectors account for ONLY 3% of all drivers.
Vehicles with radar detectors account for 33% of all vehicles ticketed for speeding.
Given that radar detectors are associated with only 3% of drivers but with 33% of speeding incidents, the average person will conclude that there is a link between owning a radar detector and speeding.
(3) But what I'd like to know is that as NOT more likely includes the case of AS likely as well, so how the NEGATION would shatter the conclusion in case of AS likely consideration ? Could you please clarify ?
If ticketed drivers are only AS LIKELY to speed regularly, then the argument cannot conclude that ticketed drivers with radar detectors are MORE LIKELY to speed regularly.
Thus, the conclusion is still invalidated.
(4) Isn't it TRUE that in ASSUMPTION CR,NEGATION should HOLD GOOD in ALL ASPECTS, BUT NOT PARTIALLY ?
Yes.
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