“Each generation of Americans has lived longer that the ones preceding it, as the national life expectancy has approached 80 years old in recent years. The progress of medical technology shows no sign of abating. Therefore, we can confidently predict that most children born in America in the next decade will live past the age of ninety.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
My RESPONSE:
Author concludes that the most children born in the next decade will live past the age of ninety. This conclusion is primarily based on two evidence. First evidence that author sites is that the past generations have lived longer than the ones preceding it. And the other reason is that the medical technology will continue to advance in the future increasing the life expectancy. This argument is not sound because of the flawed assumption.
First, this argument assumes that a certain trend of increased life expectancy will continue in the future. This might not be true. It is possible that we have reached a life expectancy age where it is not possible to increase it any further.
Second assumption is that the advances in medical technology will continue to happen. Medical technology will be able to cure all the diseases and thereby increase the age a person lives. It also assumes that any future new disease will not decrease the life expectancy of the person. If one consider the new age disease like AIDS, it takes time to find a cure for such diseases. Thus, it will be only after some time that the cure may be available for the new diseases that the next decade may throw up.
Argument can be strengthened, if it is know that the advances in medical technology will be able to take care of any new diseases in the future. Since, this is impossible to know, the author cannot definitely predict the life expectancy of the children in the next decade.
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
My RESPONSE:
Author concludes that the most children born in the next decade will live past the age of ninety. This conclusion is primarily based on two evidence. First evidence that author sites is that the past generations have lived longer than the ones preceding it. And the other reason is that the medical technology will continue to advance in the future increasing the life expectancy. This argument is not sound because of the flawed assumption.
First, this argument assumes that a certain trend of increased life expectancy will continue in the future. This might not be true. It is possible that we have reached a life expectancy age where it is not possible to increase it any further.
Second assumption is that the advances in medical technology will continue to happen. Medical technology will be able to cure all the diseases and thereby increase the age a person lives. It also assumes that any future new disease will not decrease the life expectancy of the person. If one consider the new age disease like AIDS, it takes time to find a cure for such diseases. Thus, it will be only after some time that the cure may be available for the new diseases that the next decade may throw up.
Argument can be strengthened, if it is know that the advances in medical technology will be able to take care of any new diseases in the future. Since, this is impossible to know, the author cannot definitely predict the life expectancy of the children in the next decade.
