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An assumption - recession and low willing purchase

Expert replies
by zoe » Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:22 pm
Dears,
here is an assumption question,

When news periodicals begin forecasting a recession, people tend to spend less money on nonessential purchases. Therefore, the perceived threat of a future recession decreases the willingness of people to purchase products that they regard as optional or luxury goods.

Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?

(A) People do not always agree as to which goods should be considered luxury goods.
(B) Many more people read news periodicals today than five years ago.
(C) Most people do not regularly read news periodicals.
(D) Decreased spending on nonessential goods does not prompt news periodicals to forecast a recession.
(E) At least some of the biggest spending consumers prior to the recession were among those who curtailed their spending after the recession began.

I excerpted the explanation on (D) from Manhattan,

Let's see. This choice is saying
nonessential goods does not prompt news periodicals to forecast a recession.
that the drop in spending is not itself causing the forecasts. That's good, because the argument is that the causality runs the other way: the forecasts cause the drop in spending. This one is looking better than answer (B). I can cross off (B) now.


My doubt:
we can get the idea that forecast recession causes decrease willing purchase, it's causal relationship, why (D) is correct, I am afraid I cannot catch what Manhattan says.
Anyone here can explain further


thanks a lot
have a nice day
>_~
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Source: — Critical Reasoning |

by MartyMurray » Thu Apr 21, 2016 3:07 am
zoe wrote:My doubt:
we can get the idea that forecast recession causes decrease willing purchase, it's causal relationship, why [spoiler](D)[/spoiler] is correct, I am afraid I cannot catch what Manhattan says.
Anyone here can explain further
This question is actually a little flawed.

This sentence, "When news periodicals begin forecasting a recession, people tend to spend less money on nonessential purchases." seems to imply that first the periodicals forecast a recession and then following the forecast people spend less money.

I realize that the word When can imply that these two things happen at the same time, but the way the sentence is written does not really imply that.

That having been said, here is the logic behind D being the correct answer.

The argument is based on the idea that the forecasts CAUSE the decreases in spending.

What the explanation is saying is that the argument is based on the assumption that it is not the case that decreased in spending CAUSE the forecasts.

In other words, if you see that forecasts and decreases in spending are happening at the same time and therefore base an argument on the idea that the first causes the second, you are assuming that the second does not cause the first.
Marty Murray
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by zoe » Thu Apr 21, 2016 6:17 pm
Marty Murray wrote:this question is actually a little flawed.

This sentence, "When news periodicals begin forecasting a recession, people tend to spend less money on nonessential purchases." seems to imply that first the periodicals forecast a recession and then following the forecast people spend less money.

I realize that the word When can imply that these two things happen at the same time, but the way the sentence is written does not really imply that.
thanks for your mention, I haven't realized it until you mention.

Marty Murray wrote:In other words, if you see that forecasts and decreases in spending are happening at the same time and therefore base an argument on the idea that the first causes the second, you are assuming that the second does not cause the first.
excellent explanation.

I got it.
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by zoe » Fri Apr 29, 2016 8:41 pm
zoe wrote: (B) Many more people read news periodicals today than five years ago.
Rethink the question , I have another question, Why (B) is incorrect,
Let's review the first sentence in stimulus,

When news periodicals begin forecasting a recession, people tend to spend less money on nonessential purchases.
we can get the idea that this sentence is a transmit way that periodicals forecast a recession
Again, review the second sentence in stimulus,
Therefore, the perceived threat of a future recession decreases the willingness of people to purchase products that they regard as optional or luxury goods.
this indicates a receive way that people get/receive the recession information, then decrease the will on spending,

here is a gap about transmit and receive, while, (B) is a good like the relationship.
So I think (B) is also correct.

of course, (D)is correct.

in this case that there are two good contenders, how to choose?
additionally, did I misunderstand on (B), please correct ,

thanks a lot.

have a nice day.
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by MartyMurray » Fri Apr 29, 2016 9:12 pm
zoe wrote:
zoe wrote: (B) Many more people read news periodicals today than five years ago.
Rethink the question , I have another question, Why (B) is incorrect,
Zoe, you got smoked by a trap answer.

Look at what B says. Does it say "Many people read news periodicals."? That people actually read periodicals is arguably an assumption of the argument, but that is not what B says.

B says that today news periodicals are read by MORE people than read them five years ago. Is an increase in readership necessary for the argument to work? What if many people read news periodicals five years ago and the same number read them today? What if many read periodicals five years ago and the number reading them has decreased but is still rather large?

In either of those scenarios I just mentioned, there would still be people many people reading periodicals. So the increase described in B is not necessary in order for the argument to work.
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by zoe » Mon May 02, 2016 3:42 am
Marty Murray wrote: Zoe, you got smoked by a trap answer.

Look at what B says. Does it say "Many people read news periodicals."? That people actually read periodicals is arguably an assumption of the argument, but that is not what B says.

B says that today news periodicals are read by MORE people than read them five years ago. Is an increase in readership necessary for the argument to work? What if many people read news periodicals five years ago and the same number read them today? What if many read periodicals five years ago and the number reading them has decreased but is still rather large?

In either of those scenarios I just mentioned, there would still be people many people reading periodicals. So the increase described in B is not necessary in order for the argument to work.
thanks Marty,

It's a awesome explanation
I think I got it,
yeh you are right, I fell into the trap.

:P
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