ESSAY QUESTION:
The following appeared in The Homebuilder magazine, a local publication with a focus on construction and sale of real-estate properties:
"According to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what changes would make the argument more logically sound.
YOUR RESPONSE:
The author of this piece in The Homebuilder magazine claims that the anticipated growth in construction points to continued incentives for investment in the industry. The author uses a survey of its readers to support this assumption around expected growth in the construction industry, citing that nearly 70% of readers plan to build or purchase a new home in the next two years. The author fails to address several critical details about said survey, though.
First of all, conclusions made based on a sample of the readers of The Homebuilder magazine certainly cannot be extrapolated to the population as a whole, as these readers have already expressed an interest in homebuilding by subscribing to the magazine. Drawing this conclusion is akin to assuming that tap dancing will grow in popularity across the country since 70% of subscribers to Dance Magazine indicated a heightened interest. This skewed sample makes it difficult to extrapolate the conclusion - that growth in construction is likely to accelerate in the near future - to the entire construction industry.
An additional concern with the survey is the sample size and the setup. The author indicates neither the size of its reader base nor the size of the survey sample, two measures that would allow for conclusions around the significance of this survey. A reader base of 300 and a survey sample of 10 is certainly not statistically significant. The author also does not address how the magazine defined the sample of respondents, another factor that impacts the significance of the survey. The survey sample population could be all readers or it could be readers that have previously indicated their intent to build a new home in the next two years. Both of these concerns with the survey make it difficult to use the survey results to draw reliable conclusions about the construction industry.
Finally, the author makes a very quick jump from the assumption that there is to be growth in the construction industry to the conclusion that this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment. The author fails to present other factors that determine an investment to be lucrative, thereby exposing the argument to weakening counter evidence. Changes in foreign construction, fluctuating prices of labor and resources, and additional laws or regulations are all factors that might influence the attractiveness of the construction industry to investors. The author cannot, therefore, definitively ascertain that the construction industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment on the expectation of growth alone.
The following appeared in The Homebuilder magazine, a local publication with a focus on construction and sale of real-estate properties:
"According to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what changes would make the argument more logically sound.
YOUR RESPONSE:
The author of this piece in The Homebuilder magazine claims that the anticipated growth in construction points to continued incentives for investment in the industry. The author uses a survey of its readers to support this assumption around expected growth in the construction industry, citing that nearly 70% of readers plan to build or purchase a new home in the next two years. The author fails to address several critical details about said survey, though.
First of all, conclusions made based on a sample of the readers of The Homebuilder magazine certainly cannot be extrapolated to the population as a whole, as these readers have already expressed an interest in homebuilding by subscribing to the magazine. Drawing this conclusion is akin to assuming that tap dancing will grow in popularity across the country since 70% of subscribers to Dance Magazine indicated a heightened interest. This skewed sample makes it difficult to extrapolate the conclusion - that growth in construction is likely to accelerate in the near future - to the entire construction industry.
An additional concern with the survey is the sample size and the setup. The author indicates neither the size of its reader base nor the size of the survey sample, two measures that would allow for conclusions around the significance of this survey. A reader base of 300 and a survey sample of 10 is certainly not statistically significant. The author also does not address how the magazine defined the sample of respondents, another factor that impacts the significance of the survey. The survey sample population could be all readers or it could be readers that have previously indicated their intent to build a new home in the next two years. Both of these concerns with the survey make it difficult to use the survey results to draw reliable conclusions about the construction industry.
Finally, the author makes a very quick jump from the assumption that there is to be growth in the construction industry to the conclusion that this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment. The author fails to present other factors that determine an investment to be lucrative, thereby exposing the argument to weakening counter evidence. Changes in foreign construction, fluctuating prices of labor and resources, and additional laws or regulations are all factors that might influence the attractiveness of the construction industry to investors. The author cannot, therefore, definitively ascertain that the construction industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment on the expectation of growth alone.
