Hello,
Can you please assist with this:
Events A and B are independent and have equal probabilities of occurring. What is the probability that event A occurs?
1.The probability that at least one of events A and B occurs is .84.
2.The probability that event B occurs and event A does not is .24.
OA: A
Thanks a lot,
Sri
What is the probability that event A occurs?
This topic has expert replies
-
- Legendary Member
- Posts: 641
- Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 3:52 pm
- Thanked: 11 times
- Followed by:8 members
- vaibhav108
- Newbie | Next Rank: 10 Posts
- Posts: 6
- Joined: Fri Jun 15, 2012 11:48 pm
- Thanked: 1 times
Given that, P(A) = P(B) and both are independent.Hello,
Can you please assist with this:
Events A and B are independent and have equal probabilities of occurring. What is the probability that event A occurs?
1.The probability that at least one of events A and B occurs is .84.
2.The probability that event B occurs and event A does not is .24.
[spoiler]OA: A[/spoiler]
Thanks a lot,
Sri
From 1 -
Atleast one of the events occur! That is either A will occur OR B will occur.
P(A) + P(B) = .84 ..... (OR represents Addition)
As, P(A) = P(B)
2P(A) = .84
P(A) = .42
SUFFICIENT
From 2 -
P(B) = .24 ....as A and B are independent.
[spoiler]NOT SUFFICIENT
[/spoiler]
[spoiler]ANSWER : A[/spoiler]
GMAT/MBA Expert
- [email protected]
- Elite Legendary Member
- Posts: 10392
- Joined: Sun Jun 23, 2013 6:38 pm
- Location: Palo Alto, CA
- Thanked: 2867 times
- Followed by:511 members
- GMAT Score:800
Hi Sri,
vaibhav108 made a slight error in his interpretation of this question, but his overall answer is correct.
We're told that events A and B are independent and have EQUAL PROBABILITY of occurring. We're asked for the probability that event A occurs.
Fact 1: The probability that AT LEAST one of the events occurs is .84
This means that A, or B or BOTH occurs = .84
We can restate this to mean that the probability that neither A, nor B nor BOTH occurs = .16
(Not A)(Not B) = .16
Since we're told that A and B have equal probabilities of occurring, they also have equal probabilities of NOT occurring. So....
(Not A) = (Not B)
Combining these 2 equations gives us the probability that A will not occur.....
(.4)(.4) = .16
The probability that A DOES NOT occur = .4
The probability that A DOES occur = .6
Fact 1 is SUFFICIENT
Fact 2: The probability that B occurs and A DOES NOT occur = .24
This tells us that....
(B)(Not A) = .24
From the prompt, we know that...
A = B
(Not A) = (Not B)
A + (Not A) = 1
In this scenario, the values are .4 and .6, but we don't know which is which (one is the probability the event occurs, the other is the probability that the event does NOT occur). Either one COULD be the answer.
Fact 2 is INSUFFICIENT.
Final Answer: A
GMAT assassins aren't born, they're made,
Rich
vaibhav108 made a slight error in his interpretation of this question, but his overall answer is correct.
We're told that events A and B are independent and have EQUAL PROBABILITY of occurring. We're asked for the probability that event A occurs.
Fact 1: The probability that AT LEAST one of the events occurs is .84
This means that A, or B or BOTH occurs = .84
We can restate this to mean that the probability that neither A, nor B nor BOTH occurs = .16
(Not A)(Not B) = .16
Since we're told that A and B have equal probabilities of occurring, they also have equal probabilities of NOT occurring. So....
(Not A) = (Not B)
Combining these 2 equations gives us the probability that A will not occur.....
(.4)(.4) = .16
The probability that A DOES NOT occur = .4
The probability that A DOES occur = .6
Fact 1 is SUFFICIENT
Fact 2: The probability that B occurs and A DOES NOT occur = .24
This tells us that....
(B)(Not A) = .24
From the prompt, we know that...
A = B
(Not A) = (Not B)
A + (Not A) = 1
In this scenario, the values are .4 and .6, but we don't know which is which (one is the probability the event occurs, the other is the probability that the event does NOT occur). Either one COULD be the answer.
Fact 2 is INSUFFICIENT.
Final Answer: A
GMAT assassins aren't born, they're made,
Rich
- vaibhav108
- Newbie | Next Rank: 10 Posts
- Posts: 6
- Joined: Fri Jun 15, 2012 11:48 pm
- Thanked: 1 times
Hi Rich,
Thanks for a great explaination!
For 1 -
I did not consider the case that both A and B can occur. So P(A).P(B) needs to be considered.
Considering that case, I landed to a quadratic equation x^2-2x+.84=0, which is not that easy to solve. So, I will go with your method.
One quick question here...
Once again thank you for pointing out the flaw in my thought process!
-V
Thanks for a great explaination!
I think it was not slight error. It was a major one!vaibhav108 made a slight error in his interpretation of this question, but his overall answer is correct.
For 1 -
I did not consider the case that both A and B can occur. So P(A).P(B) needs to be considered.
Considering that case, I landed to a quadratic equation x^2-2x+.84=0, which is not that easy to solve. So, I will go with your method.
One quick question here...
Shouldn't this be Probability of both (NOT A) AND (NOT B)? As we need to make sure that BOTH do not occur. Please correct me if I am wrong here...We can restate this to mean that the probability that neither A, nor B nor BOTH occurs = .16
Once again thank you for pointing out the flaw in my thought process!
-V
-
- GMAT Instructor
- Posts: 2630
- Joined: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:32 pm
- Location: East Bay all the way
- Thanked: 625 times
- Followed by:119 members
- GMAT Score:780
Here's a succinct approach:
Let's say the probability of A occurring is x. Then the probability of A NOT occurring is (1 - x).
Since A and B have identical probabilities, B's probabilities are also x and (1 - x), respectively.
S1 tells us that
1 - (Probability of Neither A Nor B) = .84
or
1 - (1 - x)² = .84
or
(1 - x)² = .16
or
(1 - x) = .4
Since (1 - x) is the probability of B's NOT occurring, we know the probability of B's occurring is .6, or 60%, and S1 is SUFFICIENT!
S2 tells us that
x * (1 - x) = .24
or
x - x² = .24
or
x² - x + .24 = 0
or
(x - .6)(x - .4) = 0
This gives us TWO distinct, valid solutions for x, so it's INSUFFICIENT.
Let's say the probability of A occurring is x. Then the probability of A NOT occurring is (1 - x).
Since A and B have identical probabilities, B's probabilities are also x and (1 - x), respectively.
S1 tells us that
1 - (Probability of Neither A Nor B) = .84
or
1 - (1 - x)² = .84
or
(1 - x)² = .16
or
(1 - x) = .4
Since (1 - x) is the probability of B's NOT occurring, we know the probability of B's occurring is .6, or 60%, and S1 is SUFFICIENT!
S2 tells us that
x * (1 - x) = .24
or
x - x² = .24
or
x² - x + .24 = 0
or
(x - .6)(x - .4) = 0
This gives us TWO distinct, valid solutions for x, so it's INSUFFICIENT.
- GMATinsight
- Legendary Member
- Posts: 1100
- Joined: Sat May 10, 2014 11:34 pm
- Location: New Delhi, India
- Thanked: 205 times
- Followed by:24 members
"GMATinsight"Bhoopendra Singh & Sushma Jha
Most Comprehensive and Affordable Video Course 2000+ CONCEPT Videos and Video Solutions
Whatsapp/Mobile: +91-9999687183 l [email protected]
Contact for One-on-One FREE ONLINE DEMO Class Call/e-mail
Most Efficient and affordable One-On-One Private tutoring fee - US$40-50 per hour
Most Comprehensive and Affordable Video Course 2000+ CONCEPT Videos and Video Solutions
Whatsapp/Mobile: +91-9999687183 l [email protected]
Contact for One-on-One FREE ONLINE DEMO Class Call/e-mail
Most Efficient and affordable One-On-One Private tutoring fee - US$40-50 per hour