What is the probability

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What is the probability

by BTGmoderatorDC » Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:41 pm
What is the probability that there is exactly 1 defective pen in a box of pens?

(1) The probability that all the pens in the box are not defective is 96%
(2) The probability that there is more than 1 defective pen in the box is 3%

Can some experts figure this out?

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by ErikaPrepScholar » Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:01 am
We are looking for the probability that exactly one pen is defective. There are 3 options for what we could get in the box
  • No defective pens
  • Exactly one defective pen
  • More than one defective pen
Because there is a 100% probability that we will get one of the options above, this means that the probability of each answer choice added together should equal 100%:

% chance of no defective pens + % chance of exactly one defective pen + % chance of more than one defective pen = 100%

So if we know the % chance of no defective pens AND the % chance of more than one defective pen, we can solve.

Statement 1 only tells us the % chance of no defective pens - we don't know the % chance of more than one defective pen. Insufficient.

Statement 2 only tells us the % chance of more than one defective pen - we don't know the % chance of no defective pens. Insufficient.

Both statements together give us % chance of no defective pens AND the % chance of more than one defective pen, so we should be able to solve. Sufficient. We don't need to do the math, but if we did, we would get:

% chance of no defective pens + % chance of exactly one defective pen + % chance of more than one defective pen = 100%
96% + % chance of exactly one defective pen + 3% = 100%
% chance of exactly one defective pen = 1%
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