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Really Good one !!

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Really Good one !!

by jeevan.Gk » Wed Feb 11, 2009 12:21 am
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

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by bmlaud » Wed Feb 11, 2009 12:29 am
I go with B

Its says to look for all the actions that lead to the predicted result.

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by jeevan.Gk » Wed Feb 11, 2009 12:34 am
I want some GMAT destroyers and Titans also to justify answer for this question. I will post the OA later.. be in track :)

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Re: Really Good one !!

by mail.SuhailSharma » Wed Feb 11, 2009 11:20 am
jeevan.Gk wrote:When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
I believe A and E are the options which can e said to be supported by the statement.
As one result can have many interpretations, I find that A will be the best choice,as it require specfying goal of the action(meaning boiling down to one interpretation of the result) so that a success of the action(prediction can be achieved).
Will go with A

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Re: Really Good one !!

by Stuart@KaplanGMAT » Wed Feb 11, 2009 11:40 am
jeevan.Gk wrote:When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
Definitely a head scratcher!

However, as usual, if we approach the question carefully we can get the right answer, even if we're not 100% sure why it's correct.

The scope of this argument is whether or not the prediction was actually accurate based on the result. Looking at the choices:

a) about judging success of an action, not a prediction... eliminate.
b) about what action to take after a prediction, not judging a prediction... eliminate.
c) about judging the success of a predictive strategy... keep.
d) about distinguishing between good and bad predictions and mentions actions... keep.
e) about making successful predictions... keep.

OK, at least we have it down to 1 in 3. Now let's look at (c), (d) and (e) in a bit more detail.

e) this argument says nothing about context... eliminate.

(c) and (d) are a bit trickier.

If (c) is true, do we believe the author's conclusion that even when the prediction seems correct, there may be other explanations? No, it doesn't. The number of trials it takes is outside the scope. Let's use Kaplan's denial test:

Denial of (c):

It is not true that learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.

or

Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good does not require knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.

The denial of (c) leaves us just as befuddled as (c) does itself. Since the denial of (c) does not clearly weaken the argument, (c) isn't a good strengthener.

Therefore, by elimination, (d) must be correct.

(D) is just a good general statement that it's hard to figure out the link between effective actions and predictions related to those actions. Let's look at the denial of (d):

It is not true that distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.

or

Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is rarely impossible.

The denial of (d) makes is seem like we should be able to distinguish between good and bad predictions. If we can distinguish between good and bad predictions, then we doubt the author's conclusion that even when it seems like our prediction is true, it may be wrong.

Now, I'm not suggesting that this is a clear and easy question (I'd be interested in the source - something that EVERY poster should include with EVERY question posted on the site), but by process of elimination the answer has to be (D).
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Re: Really Good one !!

by Stuart@KaplanGMAT » Wed Feb 11, 2009 11:46 am
mail.SuhailSharma wrote:I believe A and E are the options which can e said to be supported by the statement.
You've made a very common question interpretation error.

We see the word "support" in two very different question types and it's vital to distinguish between them on test day.

Sometimes we see the word "support" in strengthening questions. For example:

"Which of the following, if true, best supports the argument above?"

or

"The official's conclusion is most supported by which of the following?"

Other times we see the word "support" in inference questions. For example:

"Which of the following is best supported by the above statements?"

or

"The above statements, if true, best support which of the following?"

In this question, we're asked to find an answer choice which supports the claims above: strengthener!

Here's the easy way to tell the difference:

If the ANSWER CHOICE SUPPORTS, it's a strengthener.
If the STATEMENTS ABOVE SUPPORT, it's an inference.

If the STATEMENTS ABOVE are GETTING SUPPORTED, it's a stregthener.
If the ANSWER CHOICE is GETTING SUPPORTED, it's an inference.
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by jeevan.Gk » Thu Feb 12, 2009 7:08 am
Thanks a lot . :)
The source is 1000 series CR test.

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by ellexay » Thu Feb 12, 2009 7:55 am
Jeevan,

What is the OA? I think it's between C or E. :wink:

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by ellexay » Thu Feb 12, 2009 7:58 am
The only beef I have with (D) is that the GMAT does not like to use "extreme" adjectives. E.g, "impossible" could've been replaced with "difficult" in order to make (D) a more viable choice. But I see where people are coming from when they choose (D). It is a good answer.

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by Stuart@KaplanGMAT » Thu Feb 12, 2009 9:05 am
ellexay wrote:The only beef I have with (D) is that the GMAT does not like to use "extreme" adjectives. E.g, "impossible" could've been replaced with "difficult" in order to make (D) a more viable choice. But I see where people are coming from when they choose (D). It is a good answer.
If this were an assumption or inference question you'd be 100% correct - it's very rare for the correct answer to either of those questions to be extreme.

However, we do sometimes see extreme correct answers on strengthen/weaken questions. The stronger a choice is, the more of an impact it can have on the author's conclusion (as long as the choice is relevant, of course).
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by jeevan.Gk » Fri Feb 13, 2009 8:21 am
Oa is D guys.

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by mason77 » Sat May 14, 2016 12:52 am
I still feel A should be the answer