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Rate this Argument Essay Please

by becnil » Thu Jan 14, 2010 11:25 pm
ESSAY QUESTION:
The following appeared in a trade publication for the insurance industry:

"Each generation of Americans has lived longer that the ones preceding it, as the national life expectancy has approached 80 years old in recent years. The progress of medical technology shows no sign of abating. Therefore, we can confidently predict that most children born in America in the next decade will live past the age of ninety."

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

YOUR RESPONSE:
The argument presented above has an inherent ambiguity in its logical conclusion. While the progress of technology may have helped in raising the national life expectancy, it is not the only factor. In this discussion, I will show how the conclusion above is based on assumptions and not on concrete evidence.

The argument correlates the rise in the national life expectancy solely to the progress of medical technology. This is not a comprehensive reasoning. While the progress of medical technology may have helped in curing a variety of diseases which were incurable before, it is not the only factor responsible for raising the life expectancy. The constant growth of life expectancy can also be related to the change in environment, better living conditions, better food etc. which became available to the Americans over the years.

The argument also assumes a straight line extrapolation of the fact that the national life expectancy in America has approached to 80 years old in recent years. As this growth is attributable to a number of factors, it is not justified to conclude that an American born in the next decade will live past the age of ninety, based solely on the fact that medical technology is showing unabated progress. Also, unexpected changes in living conditions or the environment may occur in the next decade, which may even reduce the life expectancy of the next generation Americans. So, the conclusion may not hold true in that case.

If the argument includes other factors responsible for raising the national life expectancy added to the progress of medical technology, the conclusion may be more logical. Moreover, this argument also needs more statistical data for a confident prediction of the future life expectancy.

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by josh@knewton » Fri Jan 15, 2010 7:18 am
Thanks for sharing this essay.

I believe this essay is a 5. It receives this strong score because you clearly have command of the argument and its flaws.

The reasons it would not earn a 6 are:

Organization
. Shoot for 5 paragraphs, organized something like this:


1) Intro paragraph. State succinct thesis with specific perspective. Introduce 3 independent points/ideas/examples that bolster thesis. Intro paragraph should be at least 3 sentences.

2) First body paragraph. Introduce paragraph with topic sentence. Unpack first point/idea/example bolstering thesis.

3) Second body paragraph. Introduce paragraph with topic sentence. Unpack second point/idea/example bolstering thesis.

4) Third body paragraph. Introduce paragraph with topic sentence. Unpack third point/idea/example bolstering thesis.

5) Conclusion paragraph. Restate thesis using new language. Quickly touch on three supporting points/ideas/examples. Conclusion paragraph should be at least 3 sentences.

Obviously, this is not the only template that will help improve your score. But it is the one most preferred by GMAT essay-readers, so you would be best served by running your essay through this framework.

Writing style. Your essay features a lot of what I call "meta-arguing," i.e. talking too much about the argument within the argument. There are a lot of words and phrases like "logical conclusion" and "comprehensive reasoning" and "straight line extrapolation," -- these can often cloud the text. Just go ahead and make your assertions directly. I.e. "People will not live past the age of 90 because..."

I hope this is helpful; please let me know if you have more GMAT prep questions.

Josh
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https://www.knewton.com

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by becnil » Mon Jan 18, 2010 12:25 pm
Hi Josh,

I tried to follow your guidelines and wrote these 2 essays as part of the AWA section of a Practice CAT. Please have a look and let me know if I am on the right track.

Argument:

"The country of Sacchar can best solve its current trade deficit problem by lowering the price of sugar, its primary export. Such an action would make Sacchar better able to compete for markets with other sugar-exporting countries. The sale of Sacchar's sugar abroad would increase, and this increase would substantially reduce Sacchar's trade deficit."


The argument presented above has some flaws in its logic. Although the line of reasoning may have some merit, it fails to justify the conclusion reached at the end. The suggested action to reduce Sacchar's trade deficit is probably one of many possible ways. Also, it is not an option with ensured outcome as it depends on various other factors, not mentioned in the argument. Thus, the argument is based on questionable assumptions and not on sufficient evidence.

As the argument suggests, sugar is the primary export of Sacchar and the country is currently facing a trade deficit. A trade deficit means less export than import. So, the deficit can possibly be balanced by increasing the production of sugar, thereby making the country a bigger player in the market. Also, it is not clear from the argument if the price of sugar has led to a reduced export. It is possible that the quality of exported sugar was responsible for the reduction. If this is true, Sacchar should try improving the quality of sugar, rather than simply reducing the price.

Additionally, there may have been an increase in production of sugar in some of the countries that used to import sugar from Sacchar. In that case, reducing the price of sugar could only lead to a lower revenue and would not possibly generate an increased demand in the market.

The argument assumes that by reducing the price, the sale of Sacchar's sugar would increase, as the country would become more competitive in the market. However, the argument fails to recognize that other sugar-exporting countries may also parallely reduce the price of sugar and Sacchar would therefore have no advantage in the market.

The reasoning presented in the argument has some merit as it outlines one way to solve a probloem. However, to reach a reasonable conclusion based on the evidence presented, further data is needed. For example, the sales figure for sugar export in the last couple of years may show the change in demand or the nature of the competition Sacchar faces in the market. Also, a comparison of the quality of sugar produced in Sacchar to the quality of sugar from other sugar-exporting countries may throw additional light on one of the possible reasons for a reduced export.



Issue:

Analysis of An Issue: "In any enterprise, the process of making or doing something is ultimately more than the final product"

The issue presented above has some inherent controversies. It states that production is more important than the final product itself. Considering the share of cost and resources attributed to production, it may initially seem so. However, for an enterprise to be successful, in addition to being manufactured, the product needs to be of standard quality and it needs to be sold at a profit. Hence, these aspects of an enterprise are as important as the production itself.

The process of making or doing something is an absolute necessity for any enterprise. However, if that product is not up to the standards of the competing market, it is not going to be of any use to the enterprise. All the cost of materials and labor involved in the production will be wasted if the quality of a product is not assured. For example, a new car is introduced in the market. However, quality control of the safety features was not strictly maintained. Consequently, it was noticed that within a short time of its introduction, a safety recall was necessary, which led to a huge loss and waste of a lot of resources. Hence, quality control of the product, before and during the production, is a very significant element of an enterprise, in addition to the process of making itself.

Manufacturing a product will not bring any profit to an enterprise if the product does not sell. So, marketing is also an absolute necessity for an enterprise. Any product needs to be advertised and marketed, so as to bring in considerable profit for the enterprise. If we go back to the example of a new car, let's say a group of new entertainment features were installed in the new car. But not enough focus was given to the marketing and publicity of these features. As a result, when the car came out in the market, consumers were not sure about the new features and did not show much enthusiasm to buy this product. Therefore, marketing is also a very significant component of an enterprise, without which a product may be of no use.

Thus, I agree that the process of making or producing is definitely needed, as it is the core of any enterprise. The share of cost and resources devoted to this function also support that. However, production is not the most important element as it cannot pay for itself. An enterprise needs to make sure that the manufactured product sells and sells for a profit, so as to pay for all the processes involved and keep the business running. The final product, as its name signifies, is the real bread earner of an enterprise.

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by josh@knewton » Mon Jan 25, 2010 12:39 pm
You're still meta-arguing to an extent. Look at your first paragraph here.

"The argument presented above has some flaws in its logic. Although the line of reasoning may have some merit, it fails to justify the conclusion reached at the end. The suggested action to reduce Sacchar's trade deficit is probably one of many possible ways. Also, it is not an option with ensured outcome as it depends on various other factors, not mentioned in the argument. Thus, the argument is based on questionable assumptions and not on sufficient evidence."

And now try it again w/o using any of the words I bolded. I realize this is not a simple task but the way to get around it is to simply say what the assumptions are.

Otherwise, you're looking pretty good. Excellent organization, etc.

Please let me know if you have any questions.

Cheers,
Josh
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