Critical Reasoning

17. An editorial in the Grandburg Daily Herald claims that Grandburg's voters would generally welcome the defeat of the political party now in control of the Grandburg City Council. The editorial bases its claim on a recent survey that found that 59 percent of Grandburg's registered voters think that the party will definitely be out of power after next year's city council elections.
Which one of the following is a principle that, if established, would provide the strongest justification for the editorial's conclusion?
(A) The way voters feel about a political party at a given time can reasonably be considered a reliable indicator of the way they will continue to feel about that party, barring unforeseeable political developments.
(B) The results of surveys that gauge current voter sentiment toward a given political party can legitimately be used as the basis for making claims about the likely future prospects of that political party.
(C) An increase in ill-feeling toward a political party that is in power can reasonably be expected to result in a corresponding increase in support for rival political parties.
(D) The proportion of voters who expect a given political possibility to be realized can legitimately be assumed to approximate the proportion of voters who are in favor of that possibility being realized.
(E) It can reasonably be assumed that registered voters who respond to a survey regarding the outcome of a future election will exercise their right to vote in that election.

IMO B

This is a tough one. Almost all the choices look good.
i will go with E.

Whats the OA ?

I may be wrong, but I would go with 'A' -

The editorial's claim is that the current party's exit will be welcomed by the residents. The editorial bases his claim on the results of the survey.

The strongest point that helps to justify the conclusion would be that voters perception would be the same towards the party after the survey.

'B' should not be the answer because it simply claims that the results of the survey can be used to as the basis for making claims about the party's future.

B IMO.

Would go with D . seems to be of LSAT style though .. whats the OA?

I will go for D, it is defintely stronger than A

What's the OA???

this is a old post of mine..

So any one wanna take chances?? OA is still not posted!

gmatmachoman wrote:this is a old post of mine..

So any one wanna take chances?? OA is still not posted!

I have to say this one is tough. The OA is D.

Premise: A recent survey found that 59 percent of Grandburg's registered voters think that the party will definitely be out of power after next year's city council elections.

Conclusion: Grandburg's voters would generally welcome the defeat of the political party now in control of the Grandburg City Council.

Option D basically bridges the gap between the premise and the conclusion. It is possible that people expect something to happen, but it is not necessary that they are in favor of that happening. D strikes off this possibility. D basically says that the voters who expect a given political possibility(defeat of ruling party) to be realized are usually in favor (welcome) of that possibility being realized.

The trick here is that the argument just talks about the voters welcoming the possibility of ruling party going out of power. Whether it actually happens or not is out of scope.

Hope that helps..

D makes sense and so does B. So is D the answer because it more strongly supports the conclusion?

Excellent question!! IMO D

Here is my Analysis:

Conclusion:
An editorial in the Grandburg Daily Herald claims that Grandburg’s voters would generally welcome the defeat of the political party now in control of the Grandburg City Council.
Premise:
The editorial bases its claim on a recent survey that found that 59 percent of Grandburg’s registered voters think that the party will definitely be out of power after next year’s city council elections.

(A) The way voters feel about a political party at a given time can reasonably be considered a reliable indicator of the way they will continue to feel about that party, barring unforeseeable political developments.

"Feeling about the party" is different from "voting for the party". Even if voters continue to feel about the party the same way as they did earlier, it is not for sure that they will vote against the party.

(B) The results of surveys that gauge current voter sentiment toward a given political party can legitimately be used as the basis for making claims about the likely future prospects of that political party.

"surveys that gauge current voter sentiment toward a given political party " and "survey that the party will definitely be out of power after next year" are different again. Why?
Because, Voters may have sentiment towards some party and can also claim that the party will be out of power next year.
Example: John likes to see congress in power. But he has a gut feeling that congress will have to step down next year.

Assume that out of 100, 75 voters had sentiment toward a political party. But 59 guessed that it would be out of power next year. This does not mean that the 59 would vote against the party. This proportion discrepancy is fixed in option D.

(C) An increase in ill-feeling toward a political party that is in power can reasonably be expected to result in a corresponding increase in support for rival political parties.

Again the same mistake as above. "ill feeling towards party" is different from "assuming party to step down"

(D) The proportion of voters who expect a given political possibility to be realized can legitimately be assumed to approximate the proportion of voters who are in favor of that possibility being realized.

What is the political possibility to be realized here? Guessing that the current party will step down.
What is the proportion of such people... 59 out of 100

So if the conclusion has to stay correct, equal proportion of voters should be voting for that possibility. In other words proportion of voters who are in favor of that possibility being realized should also be 59 out of 100. Only then the conclusion holds true.

(E) It can reasonably be assumed that registered voters who respond to a survey regarding the outcome of a future election will exercise their right to vote in that election.

Even if all the Registered voters exercise their right to vote in the election, we are not sure which party they are voting against. Conclusion cannot hold true.

Hope this helps!!