Critical Reasoning

A low-pressure weather system is approaching Plainville; rainfall results from about 70 percent of such systems in the Plainville area. Moreover, the current season, spring, is the time of year in which thundershowers, which sometimes result from low-pressure systems, are most likely to occur in Plainville.
Knowing which one of the following, in addition to the information above, would be most useful for determining the probability that Plainville will have a thundershower soon?
(A) the percentage of thundershowers in Plainville that occur in the spring
(B) the percentage of spring rainfalls in Plainville that are thundershowers
(C) the percentage of thundershowers in Plainville that result from low-pressure systems
(D) whether low-pressure systems in other areas are associated with rainfall
(E) whether Plainville has more or fewer thundershowers each spring than do nearby towns

Hi all!

I've found lost CR question.

IMO B

The probability of something being the case given that something else is the
case is called a conditional probability. We express the conditional probability
of A on B by writing Pr(A\B).

Source: Critical reasoning user manual

Pr(rainfall\low-pressure weather system) = 70%

(A) it is irrelevant

(B) it is most useful for determining the requested probability

(C) it is out of scope because spring is the time of year in which thundershowers are most likely to occur in Plainville

(D) it is out of scope because of other areas

(E) it is out of scope

hope it helps!

If you don't agree with my reasoning, post here! Thanks!

Best,
Maciek

Hi Maciek,
I don't understand why C is out of scope, as thundershowers, which sometimes result from low-pressure systems and we have premise that A low-pressure weather system is approaching Plainville, therefore if we know C, we could determine the probability that Plainville will have a thundershower.

I agree with scholardream.. I would Prefer C

agreed - the answer should be (B). tricky question.

spartacus1412 wrote:I agree with scholardream.. I would Prefer C

+1 C pls explain why is it out of scope..

We know that thundershowers are most likely to occur in spring. So whether thundershowers result from low-pressure systems or NOT does not help us in determining the likelihood of thundershowers. Also, choice (C) does not mention anything about thundershowers in spring. We need an answer that ties rainfall to thundershowers and only choice (B) does that.



hope this helps

I will go for A since this is exactly what is asked in the question.
The information given in the stimulus is not used if I go with option A, and I feel it has been given to mislead.


B - the percentage of spring rainfalls in Plainville that are thundershowers
there can be a thundershower without rainfall as well. Secondly, there can be rainfall for reasons other than low-pressure and thus it cannot give correct probability or rather will give less probability than the correct


C - the percentage of thundershowers in Plainville that result from low-pressure systems
thundershowers can result from reasons other than low-pressure and not sufficient to calculate the probability




@Experts...help please