Probability

This topic has expert replies
Newbie | Next Rank: 10 Posts
Posts: 8
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2013 4:42 am

Probability

by shashwats » Mon Apr 29, 2013 4:43 am
If 5 numbers are to be selected from integers from 1 to 20, inclusive, without replacement, what is the probability that both 5 and 15 will be selected?
(A) 1/57
(B) 1/19
(C) 3/19
(D) 4/57
(E) 2/19

What I thought of was:
(2C2 * 19C3)/ 21C5

Master | Next Rank: 500 Posts
Posts: 423
Joined: Fri Jun 11, 2010 7:59 am
Location: Seattle, WA
Thanked: 86 times
Followed by:2 members

by srcc25anu » Mon Apr 29, 2013 5:11 am
# nos to select from = 20
Total # ways to select 5 out of 20 nos = 20C5
prob that both 5 and 15 is selected (among 5 selected numbers) = 2 (either 5,15 or 15,5)
Ways to select other 3 numbers = 18C3

Reqd prob = (2 * 18C3) / 20C5
= 2/19
Ans E

What's the OA?

GMAT/MBA Expert

User avatar
GMAT Instructor
Posts: 511
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 9:47 am
Location: Delhi, India
Thanked: 344 times
Followed by:86 members

by Anju@Gurome » Mon Apr 29, 2013 5:12 am
shashwats wrote:If 5 numbers are to be selected from integers from 1 to 20, inclusive, without replacement, what is the probability that both 5 and 15 will be selected?
Total number of ways to select 5 integers from 20 integers = 20C5

As 2 integers (5 and 15) are always selected, to satisfy the given criteria we need to select (5 - 2) = 3 integers from (20 - 2) = 18 integers.
Number of ways to select 3 integers from 18 integers = 18C3

So, required probability = (18C3)/(20C5) = [(18!)/[(15!)*(3!)]]/[(20!)/[(15!)*(5!)]] = [18!/3!]*[5!/20!] = 5!/[(3!)*20*19] = 1/19

The correct answer is B.
Anju Agarwal
Quant Expert, Gurome

Backup Methods : General guide on plugging, estimation etc.
Wavy Curve Method : Solving complex inequalities in a matter of seconds.

§ GMAT with Gurome § Admissions with Gurome § Career Advising with Gurome §

GMAT/MBA Expert

User avatar
GMAT Instructor
Posts: 511
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 9:47 am
Location: Delhi, India
Thanked: 344 times
Followed by:86 members

by Anju@Gurome » Mon Apr 29, 2013 5:37 am
srcc25anu wrote:# nos to select from = 20
Total # ways to select 5 out of 20 nos = 20C5
prob that both 5 and 15 is selected (among 5 selected numbers) = 2 (either 5,15 or 15,5)
Ways to select other 3 numbers = 18C3

Reqd prob = (2 * 18C3) / 20C5?
First of all it is not probability but number of ways to select both 5 and 15.
And secondly, it is selection, so we do not need to consider relative arrangements or the order in which 5 and 15 are selected.

For example, {5, 6, 7, 8, 15} and {15, 6, 7, 8, 5} are same selections.
Anju Agarwal
Quant Expert, Gurome

Backup Methods : General guide on plugging, estimation etc.
Wavy Curve Method : Solving complex inequalities in a matter of seconds.

§ GMAT with Gurome § Admissions with Gurome § Career Advising with Gurome §

Newbie | Next Rank: 10 Posts
Posts: 8
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2013 4:42 am

by shashwats » Mon Apr 29, 2013 6:31 am
Thanks anju@gurome.
I had taken 21C3 instead of 20C3, hence the error!

User avatar
GMAT Instructor
Posts: 15539
Joined: Tue May 25, 2010 12:04 pm
Location: New York, NY
Thanked: 13060 times
Followed by:1906 members
GMAT Score:790

by GMATGuruNY » Mon Apr 29, 2013 1:57 pm
shashwats wrote:If 5 numbers are to be selected from integers from 1 to 20, inclusive, without replacement, what is the probability that both 5 and 15 will be selected?
(A) 1/57
(B) 1/19
(C) 3/19
(D) 4/57
(E) 2/19
An alternate approach:

Let Y = selecting 5 or 15 and N = selecting any number other than 5 or 15.

ONE WAY to select both 5 and 15: YYNNN
P(Y on the 1st pick) = 2/20. (Of the 20 numbers, either 5 or 15.)
P(Y on the 2nd pick) = 1/19. (Of the 19 remaining numbers, either 5 or 15, whichever was not selected on the first pick.)
P(N on the 3rd pick) = 1. (Since 5 and 15 have already been selected, the 3rd number selected must be a number other than 5 or 15.)
P(N on the 4th pick) = 1. (Since 5 and 15 have already been selected, the 4th number selected must be a number other than 5 or 15.)
P(N on the 5th pick) = 1. (Since 5 and 15 have already been selected, the 5th number selected must be a number other than 5 or 15.)
Since we want all of these outcomes to happen, we multiply the probabilities:
2/20 * 1/19 * 1 * 1 * 1 = 1/10 * 1/19.

TOTAL POSSIBLE WAYS:
YYNNN represents only ONE WAY to select both 5 and 15.
Now we must account for ALL OF THE WAYS to select both 5 and 15.
Any arrangement of the letters YYNNN represents a way to select both 5 and 15.
To illustrate:
NNNYY = selecting 5 and 15 on the 4th and 5th picks.
NYNYN = selecting 5 and 15 on the 2nd and 4th picks.
To account for ALL OF THE WAYS to select both 5 and 15, the product above must be multiplied by the number of ways to arrange YYNNN.

The number of ways to arrange 5 letters = 5!.
But the arrangement here includes IDENTICAL ELEMENTS.
When an arrangement includes identical elements, we must divide by the number of ways to arrange the identical elements.
The reason:
When the identical elements swap positions, the arrangement doesn't change.
Here, we must divide by 2! (to account for the two identical Y's) and by 3! (to account for the three identical N's).
Thus:
Number of ways to arrange YYNNN = 5!/(2!3!) = 10.

Multiplying the two results, we get:
P(selecting both 5 and 15) = 1/10 * 1/19 * 10 = 1/19.

The correct answer is B.

Check here for a similar problem:
https://www.beatthegmat.com/select-exact ... 88786.html
Private tutor exclusively for the GMAT and GRE, with over 20 years of experience.
Followed here and elsewhere by over 1900 test-takers.
I have worked with students based in the US, Australia, Taiwan, China, Tajikistan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia -- a long list of countries.
My students have been admitted to HBS, CBS, Tuck, Yale, Stern, Fuqua -- a long list of top programs.

As a tutor, I don't simply teach you how I would approach problems.
I unlock the best way for YOU to solve problems.

For more information, please email me (Mitch Hunt) at [email protected].
Student Review #1
Student Review #2
Student Review #3

Master | Next Rank: 500 Posts
Posts: 468
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2011 10:20 pm
Thanked: 29 times
Followed by:4 members

by vipulgoyal » Mon Apr 29, 2013 9:53 pm
experts please suggest

whats wrong with this

1/20 * 1/19 * 1 * 1 * 1 * 5(factorial) = 6/19

GMAT/MBA Expert

User avatar
GMAT Instructor
Posts: 511
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 9:47 am
Location: Delhi, India
Thanked: 344 times
Followed by:86 members

by Anju@Gurome » Mon Apr 29, 2013 10:01 pm
vipulgoyal wrote:experts please suggest

whats wrong with this

1/20 * 1/19 * 1 * 1 * 1 * 5(factorial) = 6/19
Unless you post your reasoning behind multiplying those numbers (and why you selected those numbers in the first place), it is difficult to point out your mistake.
Anju Agarwal
Quant Expert, Gurome

Backup Methods : General guide on plugging, estimation etc.
Wavy Curve Method : Solving complex inequalities in a matter of seconds.

§ GMAT with Gurome § Admissions with Gurome § Career Advising with Gurome §

Master | Next Rank: 500 Posts
Posts: 468
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2011 10:20 pm
Thanked: 29 times
Followed by:4 members

by vipulgoyal » Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:11 pm
1/20 * 1/19 * 1 * 1 * 1 * 5(factorial) = 6/19

first i took 5 then 15 then for third we have 18 out of 18 options then forr fourth we have 17 out of 17 options and for fifth we have 16 out of 16 options hence

1/20 * 1/19 * 18/18 * 17/17 * 16/16
1/20 * 1/19 * 1 * 1 * 1
since all the 5 numbers are differant because we are talking abt without replacement

1/20 * 1/19 * 1 * 1 * 1 * 5(factorial) = 6/19

Master | Next Rank: 500 Posts
Posts: 137
Joined: Fri Nov 13, 2015 11:01 am
Thanked: 1 times
Followed by:2 members

by Amrabdelnaby » Fri Nov 27, 2015 10:51 am
Hi Anju,

I understand the solution but i have a small question.

why when choosing 5 and 15, order doesn't matter?

we can choose 5 first or 15 first so this should double the probability.

for example u said it should be (2c2 x 18c3)/ 20c5

which is basically 18c3 / 20c5

well why did we not consider that fact that we might choose one element before the other and that should count in probability? i understand that if it is a combination question, the order doesn't count because 5,15 is the same as 15,5, but when tackling a probability question shouldn't we consider the probability of taking options?

Also when i solve it using the probability method i do the following:

2/20 x 1/19 x 10--> which is the number of ways to arrange the 2 elements in 5 places/choices

this answer yields to 1/19

so here i started with 2/20, meaning the first selection can include either 5 or 15.

please explain :)

Thanks
Anju@Gurome wrote:
srcc25anu wrote:# nos to select from = 20
Total # ways to select 5 out of 20 nos = 20C5
prob that both 5 and 15 is selected (among 5 selected numbers) = 2 (either 5,15 or 15,5)
Ways to select other 3 numbers = 18C3

Reqd prob = (2 * 18C3) / 20C5?
First of all it is not probability but number of ways to select both 5 and 15.
And secondly, it is selection, so we do not need to consider relative arrangements or the order in which 5 and 15 are selected.

For example, {5, 6, 7, 8, 15} and {15, 6, 7, 8, 5} are same selections.