Guessing Strategy Theory

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Guessing Strategy Theory

by mattnyc15 » Thu Nov 26, 2015 8:28 am
I've noticed a trend in the OG and even on MGMAT stuff and I'd like to get some input to see if my assumption holds any weight.

What I've noticed is in some problems answer choices will be spaced out closely and then you'll see a jump in the spacing. I've noticed the option that contains the first "jump" is often surprisingly the correct answer.

Example in problem solving #158 from the OG.

A. 15
B. 16
C. 28
D. 56
E. 64

C is the correct answer. This logic really only applies to increasing # answer problems when the jump is in the middle, but here's another:

Problem #226 in OG:

A. 10%
B. 33.33%
C. 40%
D. 50%
E. 66.66%

The answer is B.

And another:

#141

A. 97
B. 65
C. 35
D. 13
E. 5

OA: C

Do you guys have any input to this observation? Is this just random or is there a trend in some problems?[/i] It's possible I could be reading into this way too much.

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by [email protected] » Thu Nov 26, 2015 10:46 am
Hi mattnyc15,

While the first example fits the description that you've provided, the second and third don't actually appear to support your theory. While there ARE patterns to how the answer choices (including the wrong answers) are written on the Official GMAT, the pattern you're asking about isn't consistent enough to provide much use on Test Day.

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by Matt@VeritasPrep » Fri Nov 27, 2015 12:15 am
I'd be careful about deriving too much from this: as Rich suggests, a sample size of 3 in which one of the problems doesn't quite fit the theory is not anything on which I'd want to bet my educational future. Confirmation bias is real! (I battle it every day!)

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by mattnyc15 » Fri Nov 27, 2015 10:39 am
Thanks Matt, I'm trying to overcome some degree of Confirmation bias myself.

Rich -- Are there any particular patterns with consistency that come to mind?