A NICE LSAT test q

[prachich1987]

Some statisticians claim that the surest way to increase the overall correctness of the total set of one's beliefs is: never change that set, except by rejecting a belief when given adequate evidence against it. However, if this were the only rule one followed, then whenever one were presented with any kind of evidence, one would have to either reject some of one's beliefs or else leave one's beliefs unchanged. But then, over time, one could only have fewer and fewer beliefs. Since we need many beliefs in order to survive, the statisticians' claim must be mistaken.

The argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it
(A) presumes, without providing any justification, that the surest way of increasing the overall correctness of the total set of one's beliefs must not hinder one's ability to survive
(B) neglects the possibility that even while following the statisticians' rule, one might also accept new beliefs when presented with some kinds of evidence
(C) overlooks the possibility that some large sets of beliefs are more correct overall than are some small sets of beliefs
(D) takes for granted that one should accept some beliefs related to survival even when given adequate evidence against them
(E) takes for granted that the beliefs we need in order to have many beliefs must all be correct beliefs

OA : after some time

[fitzgerald23]

1. Statisticians say to never change the set of beliefs unless given evidence against it
2. This would cause people to have fewer and fewer beliefs
3. We need many beliefs to survive

I want to eliminate the easy ones first:

C. Incorrect. His argument has nothing to do with correctness, just that we need many beliefs

D. Incorrect. He never says that you should keep beliefs that are wrong, just that we need many beliefs and the statisticians claim doesnt allow that

E. Incorrect. Again he never talks about incorrect vs correct. Just that we need many.

Here is the tricky part and Im going to guess A is the correct answer even though I cant really justify the choice. Here is my problem with B. In B they talk about accepting new beliefs as a possibility. That would seem logical to choose as the answer. New evidence leads to new beliefs meaning the set is still large. My problem with that is if you go back to the passage and the statisticians argument it is not a possibility to accept new beliefs. Their rule is either reject a belief or keep it. Nowhere do they allow for a belief to be modified or a new belief to be added. Based on that I dont think he is neglecting the possibility because, according to the statisticians, that possibility does not even exist. So by POE Id go with A as the answer.

[rohu27]

A

I cannot offer a thorough explanation though.

Some statisticians claim that the surest way to increase the overall correctness of the total set of one's beliefs is: never change that set, except by rejecting a belief when given adequate evidence against it. However, if this were the only rule one followed, then whenever one were presented with any kind of evidence, one would have to either reject some of one's beliefs or else leave one's beliefs unchanged. But then, over time, one could only have fewer and fewer beliefs. Since we need many beliefs in order to survive, the statisticians' claim must be mistaken.

The argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it
(A) presumes, without providing any justification, that the surest way of increasing the overall correctness of the total set of one's beliefs must not hinder one's ability to survive
(B) neglects the possibility that even while following the statisticians' rule, one might also accept new beliefs when presented with some kinds of evidence
(C) overlooks the possibility that some large sets of beliefs are more correct overall than are some small sets of beliefs
(D) takes for granted that one should accept some beliefs related to survival even when given adequate evidence against them
(E) takes for granted that the beliefs we need in order to have many beliefs must all be correct beliefs

OA : after some time

[Tani]

I agree that it's A. It seems to me that the author is rejecting the method because it might conflict with survival, but the statisticians aren't addressing survival - only correctness. It's the classic case of a new term in the conclusion that comes out of nowhere.

[prachich1987]

The OA is indeed A