paradox

[rahul.s]

Which of the following most logically completes the argument?

Grain alcohol manufacturing company Drinkup once produced the majority of grain alcohol exports in the country of Yoria, but in the past few years economic troubles and restrictive land use policies have inhibited Drinkup's investment in new fields on which to grow wheat and barley for the purpose of producing alcohol. As a result, Yoria's grain alcohol exports dropped steadily as Drinkup's fields became depleted. Now, Drinkup's improving financial situation, together with new, less restrictive land-use policies, will surely result in the purchase and development of new fields. However, to conclude that Drinkup's development of new wheat and barley fields will result in an increase in Yoria's grain alcohol exports would be premature, for _____.

(A) the new fields that Drinkup plans to develop are likely to be as productive as those that were developed during the period when Drinkup was the largest contributor to Yoria's grain alcohol exports

(B) the improvement in Drinkup's financial situation is due to the improvement in Yoria's financial situation overall, and this overall improvement is expected to result in a dramatic increase in the consumption of grain alcohol

(C) of the total amount of money Drinkup will invest in new fields for growing wheat and barley, less than half is expected to be funded by the government of Yoria

(D) the price of grain alcohol worldwide is expected to remain relatively stable over the next several years

(E) new technology has been developed that can produce grain alcohol from wheat and barley grown on fields that were formerly regarded as depleted

OA: B

[thephoenix]

any inc in alcohol prodcn if is getting consumed inside the country, then the export will not be able to inc

hence B is correct

[fibbonnaci]

for completing the argument you need to determine what the blank actually represents. in this case the blank represents a premise. notice the premise indicator 'for'.

The conclusion is that Drinkup's development of new wheat and barley fields will result in an increase in Yoria's grain alcohol exports would be premature.
Why the author feels this would be premature or in clear terms on what basis he makes this conclusion is what we are supposed to fill.

lets look at answer options now:

(A) the new fields that Drinkup plans to develop are likely to be as productive as those that were developed during the period when Drinkup was the largest contributor to Yoria's grain alcohol exports [ this is a positive answer. if this answer was true we could easily say that the exports of grain alcohol would increase. but the author does not say so. we need to show a reason of doubt. eliminated!]

(B) the improvement in Drinkup's financial situation is due to the improvement in Yoria's financial situation overall, and this overall improvement is expected to result in a dramatic increase in the consumption of grain alcohol [ correct! if the consumption increases, then the exports would surely be affected. so here an element of doubt is introduced. we cannot predict for sure if the exports would increase]

(C) of the total amount of money Drinkup will invest in new fields for growing wheat and barley, less than half is expected to be funded by the government of Yoria [ government funding? how does that relate to our conclusion- increase in exports? eliminated!]

(D) the price of grain alcohol worldwide is expected to remain relatively stable over the next several years[ if the price remains stable then exports are not directly affected unless some other parameter affects it. Eliminated]

(E) new technology has been developed that can produce grain alcohol from wheat and barley grown on fields that were formerly regarded as depleted [ production must increase. thats the data we can determine. but whether exports will be affected or not still cannot be determined with this choice. eliminated]

Hope this helps!

[gmatmachoman]

agreed with fibbonnaci...

But IMO B partially completes the passage with some "assumptions".What if Insider people's main priority is drinking amidst grim economic conditions?B force us to assume that citizens of Y will drink only when they are financially stable..

But among all other options B stands out to be winner.

[pkw209]

I don't see why an increase in consumption would negatively impact exports. If anything, wouldn't an increase in consumption positively impact exports if no grain alcohol is produced in Yoria? If people are drinking more, wouldn't they want to import more from Drinkup?

[rahul.s]

B states that there would be a dramatical increase in local consumption. so there need not be an increase in Yoria's exports.

[bhumika.k.shah]

i too agree with this reasoning of yours.
based on this reasoning, i found B to be the correct option

any inc in alcohol prodcn if is getting consumed inside the country, then the export will not be able to inc

hence B is correct

[komal]

Which of the following most logically completes the argument?

Grain alcohol manufacturing company Drinkup once produced the majority of grain alcohol exports in the country of Yoria, but in the past few years economic troubles and restrictive land use policies have inhibited Drinkup's investment in new fields on which to grow wheat and barley for the purpose of producing alcohol. As a result, Yoria's grain alcohol exports dropped steadily as Drinkup's fields became depleted. Now, Drinkup's improving financial situation, together with new, less restrictive land-use policies, will surely result in the purchase and development of new fields. However, to conclude that Drinkup's development of new wheat and barley fields will result in an increase in Yoria's grain alcohol exports would be premature, for _____.

Set 1 :
Premise : Drinkup produced majority of grain alcohol exports in Yoria
Premise : Drinkup's investment in grain fields has been inhibited by economic troubles
Premise : restrictive land use
Conclusion : Drinkup's field depletion led to drop in Yoria's alcohol exports

Set 2 :
Premise : Drinkup's financial situation is improving
Premise : Land use policies have been less restrictive
Conclusion : It is premature to say that drinkup's development of fields will result in increase in Yoria's grain alcohol exports

Since it is the second conclusion which is under scrutiny we have to look for an unstated premise from which the 2nd conclusion can follow

(A) the new fields that Drinkup plans to develop are likely to be as productive as those that were developed during the period when Drinkup was the largest contributor to Yoria's grain alcohol exports
Incorrect : If this was the case it would not be premature to say that Yoria's grain alcohol would increase.

(B) the improvement in Drinkup's financial situation is due to the improvement in Yoria's financial situation overall, and this overall improvement is expected to result in a dramatic increase in the consumption of grain alcohol
Correct : In this case it is safe to say that dramatic increase in local grain alcohol consumption will have a negative impact on export of Yoria's grain alcohol.

(C) of the total amount of money Drinkup will invest in new fields for growing wheat and barley, less than half is expected to be funded by the government of Yoria
Incorrect : Govt. funding is clearly out of scope

(D) the price of grain alcohol worldwide is expected to remain relatively stable over the next several years
Incorrect : How does stability in worldwide grain alcohol price affect the exports of Yoria's grain alcohol? It doesnt. Not in this context.

(E) new technology has been developed that can produce grain alcohol from wheat and barley grown on fields that were formerly regarded as depleted
Incorrect : In case of increase grain alcohol production it can be assumed that exports will also increase.

[pkw209]

I kind of see it but it still doesn't fully make sense.

Why would a dramatic increase in local grain alcohol consumption have a negative impact on export of Yoria's grain alcohol?

Nothing in the stimulus shows a relationship between grain alcohol consumption in Yoria and Drinkup's exports. In other words, you can't really infer that an increase in grain alcohol consumption in Yoria is going to lead to fewer shipments to other countries.

If you're looking at it from a supply standpoint then that might work. But the issue of supply is never mentioned in the stimulus.