Critical Reasoning

Hi All,

In the below question the OA is [spoiler] "B"[/spoiler].

Can somebody please help me understand why [spoiler]"A"[/spoiler] is wrong ? As per the reasoning given in Kaplan, [spoiler]"A"[/spoiler] is strengthening the argument....but is it not weakening the same ?

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A spokesperson for the Reader's Book Club (RBC) recently hailed the club's free gift program as a big boost for sales. A year ago, RBC began offering a free gift to any member ordering five or more books in a single month. Since then, the number of members ordering five or more books at a time from RBC has risen by nearly 35 percent.

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the spokesperson's assessment of the program's effect on sales ?

a) The number of members ordering fewer than five books in a single month also rose in the last year.
b) Most members ordered the same number of books over the year but concentrated their orders in the specific months.
c) The cost of providing free gifts nearly offset the increased revenue from higher sales.
d) Most other book clubs, many of which also sponsored free gift programs, saw a drop in sales.
e) The membership of the Reader's book club rose by more than 20 percent over the last year.

Thanks
Mohit

1 customer buy 12 books in a year, by 1 book a month, and gets no gift, because he has to get at least 5 in a month in order to get gifted. According to B - "most members", in this case 1 customer, ordered the same number in a single year(12 books), but according to premise orders of 5 books in a moth increased(means customer just orders more books at once to receive bonus). Thus, there is no change in sales, just waste of gifts

A - says that there are additional customers except of existing one, thus even though old client gains poking the hole in the manager's plan, the new customers bring some profit, ordering fewer than 5 in month and thus get no gifts.

IMO "A" does not talk about new customers.

Can't we interpret "A" like:

say there were 100 customers. No new customers were added(or even if added)...then because of some XYZ reason....( which is not mentioned in the argument and nor we can know beforehand)....people started ordering more books due to which in general number/size of orders increased.....and increase in order size > 5 books was just a part of it.....and has nothing to do with the gift program.

Experts kindly share your thoughts.

Thanks
Mohit

A spokesperson for the Reader's Book Club (RBC) recently hailed the club's free gift program as a big boost for sales. A year ago, RBC began offering a free gift to any member ordering five or more books in a single month. Since then, the number of members ordering five or more books at a time from RBC has risen by nearly 35 percent.


The spokespersons assessment is the free gift program has had a big boost on sales since the number of members ordering five or more books at a time from RBC has risen by nearly 35 percent

Assumption is that lots of books have been sold(big boost sales) beacuse of the gift program

a) The number of members ordering fewer than five books in a single month also rose in the last year.

This is irrelevant to the argument. The free gift program does not come in to play since it only applies to 5 or more books.

If u think another way u could also say that the free gift program attracted more customers to the store and they changed the mind to just buy 1 instead of 5 or more for reason they only know. We dont know.This would mean it strengthens the argument.

b) Most members ordered the same number of books over the year but concentrated their orders in the specific months.

This shows there has not been a big boost in sales(number of books sold has not increased tremendously)

Lets say I am customer of book store.Instead of buying 10 books one each month I place the order of the 10 books at one time. This would definitely increase the percentage the number of members ordering five or more books at a time from RBC but the number of books I buy has remain the same.



This choice would make the author think whether the premise does infact lead to the conclusion i.e. it makes him reconsider what he said. The conclusion arrived(big boost in sales) may not be true based on the premise(the number of members ordering five or more books at a time from RBC has risen by nearly 35 percent) even though the premise is true

Hope this helps!

Regards,
CR

cramya wrote: If u think another way u could also say that the free gift program attracted more customers to the store and they changed the mind to just buy 1 instead of 5 or more for reason they only know. We dont know.This would mean it strengthens the argument.

Good point. Thanks for clearing the doubts.

"for reason they only know. We dont know." - Awesome .....really this way the argument is getting "strengthened"....which is not getting clear in Kaplan explanation.

Thanks
Mohit

IMO B

Good explanation by Cramya

goelmohit2002 wrote:IMO "A" does not talk about new customers.

Can't we interpret "A" like:

say there were 100 customers. No new customers were added(or even if added)...then because of some XYZ reason....( which is not mentioned in the argument and nor we can know beforehand)....people started ordering more books due to which in general number/size of orders increased.....and increase in order size > 5 books was just a part of it.....and has nothing to do with the gift program.

BTW what is wrong in above school of thought....for "A"...??

Thanks
Mohit

I agree with mohit...

BTW what is wrong in above school of thought....for "A"...??

As said earlier ,the free gift program could have attracted more customers to the store and they could have changed their mind to buy 1 book instead of 5 or more for reason they only know.

We are also given another piece of evidence that the number of members ordering five or more books at a time from RBC has risen by nearly 35 percent.


Considering both premises above we can conclude that the free gift program did boost the sales.Hence this could potentially strengthen the argument. The question is asking us to pick a choice that would weaken the argument not strengthen.

Regards,
CR

goelmohit2002 wrote:IMO "A" does not talk about new customers.

Can't we interpret "A" like:

say there were 100 customers. No new customers were added(or even if added)...then because of some XYZ reason....( which is not mentioned in the argument and nor we can know beforehand)....people started ordering more books due to which in general number/size of orders increased.....and increase in order size > 5 books was just a part of it.....and has nothing to do with the gift program.

But IMO the above interpretation of "A" is indeed weakening the argument....or I am missing something here.

Thanks
Mohit

Experts kindly share your thoughts.

Thanks
Mohit

I'd say A but I'm afraid more because of my intuition than any logic