If the probability of rain on any given day is 50%, what is the probability that it
will rain on at least 3 days in a row during a 5 day period?
(A) 3/32
(B) 1/4
(C) 9/32
(D)5/16
(E) 1/2
OA : later with explanation .
Rain check
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- GMATGuruNY
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P = (good outcomes)/(total possible outcomes)AIM GMAT wrote:If the probability of rain on any given day is 50%, what is the probability that it
will rain on at least 3 days in a row during a 5 day period?
(A) 3/32
(B) 1/4
(C) 9/32
(D)5/16
(E) 1/2
OA : later with explanation .
Let R = rain, N = no rain.
Total possible outcomes:
Each day could be R or N, giving us 2 possible outcomes for each day.
Over 5 days, total possible outcomes = 2*2*2*2*2 = 32.
Good outcomes:
Exactly 3 days of rain in a row:
RRRNN
RRRNR
NRRRN
NNRRR
RNRRR
5 good outcomes.
Exactly 4 days of rain in a row:
RRRRN
NRRRR
2 good outcomes.
Exactly 5 days of rain in a row:
RRRRR
1 good outcome.
Good outcomes = 5+2+1 = 8.
Thus, P(at least 3 days of rain in a row) = 8/32 = 1/4.
The correct answer is B.
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I think you did a mistatke in counting the number of outcomes for 3 daus and 4 days. Actually, for exactly 3 days ----> there are 10 outcomes( 5!/(3!*2!)); for exactly 4 days, there are 5 outcomes ( 5!/(4!*1!)). The total is 10+5+1=16GMATGuruNY wrote:P = (good outcomes)/(total possible outcomes)AIM GMAT wrote:If the probability of rain on any given day is 50%, what is the probability that it
will rain on at least 3 days in a row during a 5 day period?
(A) 3/32
(B) 1/4
(C) 9/32
(D)5/16
(E) 1/2
OA : later with explanation .
Let R = rain, N = no rain.
Total possible outcomes:
Each day could be R or N, giving us 2 possible outcomes for each day.
Over 5 days, total possible outcomes = 2*2*2*2*2 = 32.
Good outcomes:
Exactly 3 days of rain in a row:
RRRNN
RRRNR
NRRRN
NNRRR
RNRRR
5 good outcomes.
Exactly 4 days of rain in a row:
RRRRN
NRRRR
2 good outcomes.
Exactly 5 days of rain in a row:
RRRRR
1 good outcome.
Good outcomes = 5+2+1 = 8.
Thus, P(at least 3 days of rain in a row) = 8/32 = 1/4.
The correct answer is B.
Thus, P = 16/32 = 1/2. the answer is E.
Using pascal triangle amounts to the same result ( 1/2)
Is that correct??
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My answer is 9/32. Please see below my way of reasoing. The key to note is raining at least 3 days "In a row"
1) At least 3 days in a row = In this case, we can consider three continous days raining as one unit and total distinct units wil be 3. We are arrange 3 units in 6 ways hence probability = 6/32.
2) At least 4 days in a row = In this case, we can consider four continous days raining as one unit and total distinct units wil be 2. We are arrange 2 units in 2 ways hence probability = 2/32.
3) At least 5 days in a row = In this case, we can consider five continous days raining as one unit and total distinct units wil be 1. We are arrange 1 unit in 1 way hence probability = 1/32.
Becuase all three cases above are mutually exclusive, the sum of probability rule will apply hence total probability of raning at least 3 days in a row will be 6/32 + 2/32 + 1/32 = 9/ 32 hence ANSWER = C
1) At least 3 days in a row = In this case, we can consider three continous days raining as one unit and total distinct units wil be 3. We are arrange 3 units in 6 ways hence probability = 6/32.
2) At least 4 days in a row = In this case, we can consider four continous days raining as one unit and total distinct units wil be 2. We are arrange 2 units in 2 ways hence probability = 2/32.
3) At least 5 days in a row = In this case, we can consider five continous days raining as one unit and total distinct units wil be 1. We are arrange 1 unit in 1 way hence probability = 1/32.
Becuase all three cases above are mutually exclusive, the sum of probability rule will apply hence total probability of raning at least 3 days in a row will be 6/32 + 2/32 + 1/32 = 9/ 32 hence ANSWER = C
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Your approach would be mathematically sound if the question asked for the probability that it will rain on at least 3 days.vaflaly wrote:I think you did a mistatke in counting the number of outcomes for 3 daus and 4 days. Actually, for exactly 3 days ----> there are 10 outcomes( 5!/(3!*2!)); for exactly 4 days, there are 5 outcomes ( 5!/(4!*1!)). The total is 10+5+1=16GMATGuruNY wrote:P = (good outcomes)/(total possible outcomes)AIM GMAT wrote:If the probability of rain on any given day is 50%, what is the probability that it
will rain on at least 3 days in a row during a 5 day period?
(A) 3/32
(B) 1/4
(C) 9/32
(D)5/16
(E) 1/2
OA : later with explanation .
Let R = rain, N = no rain.
Total possible outcomes:
Each day could be R or N, giving us 2 possible outcomes for each day.
Over 5 days, total possible outcomes = 2*2*2*2*2 = 32.
Good outcomes:
Exactly 3 days of rain in a row:
RRRNN
RRRNR
NRRRN
NNRRR
RNRRR
5 good outcomes.
Exactly 4 days of rain in a row:
RRRRN
NRRRR
2 good outcomes.
Exactly 5 days of rain in a row:
RRRRR
1 good outcome.
Good outcomes = 5+2+1 = 8.
Thus, P(at least 3 days of rain in a row) = 8/32 = 1/4.
The correct answer is B.
Thus, P = 16/32 = 1/2. the answer is E.
Using pascal triangle amounts to the same result ( 1/2)
Is that correct??
But the problem above asks for the probability that it will rain at least 3 days IN A ROW.
If you revisit my solution above, all of the different ways are listed, so there is no room for error.
Last edited by GMATGuruNY on Sun Dec 23, 2012 7:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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I have worked with students based in the US, Australia, Taiwan, China, Tajikistan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia -- a long list of countries.
My students have been admitted to HBS, CBS, Tuck, Yale, Stern, Fuqua -- a long list of top programs.
As a tutor, I don't simply teach you how I would approach problems.
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GMATGuruNY wrote:Your approach would be mathematically sound if the question asked for the probability that it will rain on at least 3 days. Since the question asks for the probability that will rain on at least 3 days in a row, it's safer to write out the different ways in which a good outcome could be achieved. If you revisit my solution above, all the different ways are listed, so there is no room for error.vaflaly wrote:I think you did a mistatke in counting the number of outcomes for 3 daus and 4 days. Actually, for exactly 3 days ----> there are 10 outcomes( 5!/(3!*2!)); for exactly 4 days, there are 5 outcomes ( 5!/(4!*1!)). The total is 10+5+1=16GMATGuruNY wrote:P = (good outcomes)/(total possible outcomes)AIM GMAT wrote:If the probability of rain on any given day is 50%, what is the probability that it
will rain on at least 3 days in a row during a 5 day period?
(A) 3/32
(B) 1/4
(C) 9/32
(D)5/16
(E) 1/2
OA : later with explanation .
Let R = rain, N = no rain.
Total possible outcomes:
Each day could be R or N, giving us 2 possible outcomes for each day.
Over 5 days, total possible outcomes = 2*2*2*2*2 = 32.
Good outcomes:
Exactly 3 days of rain in a row:
RRRNN
RRRNR
NRRRN
NNRRR
RNRRR
5 good outcomes.
Exactly 4 days of rain in a row:
RRRRN
NRRRR
2 good outcomes.
Exactly 5 days of rain in a row:
RRRRR
1 good outcome.
Good outcomes = 5+2+1 = 8.
Thus, P(at least 3 days of rain in a row) = 8/32 = 1/4.
The correct answer is B.
Thus, P = 16/32 = 1/2. the answer is E.
Using pascal triangle amounts to the same result ( 1/2)
Is that correct??
I understand my mystake now from your explaination. the key word is "in the row".
thank you
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Hi Guru,
I see that you solved it by listing... is there another faster way to solve it using probability rules or combinations?
please advise
I see that you solved it by listing... is there another faster way to solve it using probability rules or combinations?
please advise
GMATGuruNY wrote:Your approach would be mathematically sound if the question asked for the probability that it will rain on at least 3 days.vaflaly wrote:I think you did a mistatke in counting the number of outcomes for 3 daus and 4 days. Actually, for exactly 3 days ----> there are 10 outcomes( 5!/(3!*2!)); for exactly 4 days, there are 5 outcomes ( 5!/(4!*1!)). The total is 10+5+1=16GMATGuruNY wrote:P = (good outcomes)/(total possible outcomes)AIM GMAT wrote:If the probability of rain on any given day is 50%, what is the probability that it
will rain on at least 3 days in a row during a 5 day period?
(A) 3/32
(B) 1/4
(C) 9/32
(D)5/16
(E) 1/2
OA : later with explanation .
Let R = rain, N = no rain.
Total possible outcomes:
Each day could be R or N, giving us 2 possible outcomes for each day.
Over 5 days, total possible outcomes = 2*2*2*2*2 = 32.
Good outcomes:
Exactly 3 days of rain in a row:
RRRNN
RRRNR
NRRRN
NNRRR
RNRRR
5 good outcomes.
Exactly 4 days of rain in a row:
RRRRN
NRRRR
2 good outcomes.
Exactly 5 days of rain in a row:
RRRRR
1 good outcome.
Good outcomes = 5+2+1 = 8.
Thus, P(at least 3 days of rain in a row) = 8/32 = 1/4.
The correct answer is B.
Thus, P = 16/32 = 1/2. the answer is E.
Using pascal triangle amounts to the same result ( 1/2)
Is that correct??
But the problem above asks for the probability that it will rain at least 3 days IN A ROW.
If you revisit my solution above, all of the different ways are listed, so there is no room for error.
- GMATGuruNY
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- Joined: Tue May 25, 2010 12:04 pm
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For most test-takers, the solution above is likely to be the easiest and fastest approach.Amrabdelnaby wrote:Hi Guru, I see that you solved it by listing... is there another faster way to solve it using probability rules or combinations?
please advise
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Followed here and elsewhere by over 1900 test-takers.
I have worked with students based in the US, Australia, Taiwan, China, Tajikistan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia -- a long list of countries.
My students have been admitted to HBS, CBS, Tuck, Yale, Stern, Fuqua -- a long list of top programs.
As a tutor, I don't simply teach you how I would approach problems.
I unlock the best way for YOU to solve problems.
For more information, please email me (Mitch Hunt) at [email protected].
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