GMAT Essays (AWA)

The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine:
"On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer."
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.



The author recommends that departmental stores should sell more products intended for middle aged consumers as opposed to those intended for younger consumers. This recommendation is based on the fact that middle aged consumers buy more departmental store products than do younger consumers and also on the fact that there will be a dramatic increase in the number of middle-aged people within the next decade. This argument is flawed for three reasons.
First, there is no data to prove that the number of younger consumers will not increase drastically as well. In-fact, it is highly likely that the number of younger consumers will also increase. The author ought to have provided information which suggests that there will be no increase in the number of younger consumers to make this argument more valid.
In addition, advising departmental stores to begin replacing their products is not reasonable as there is no telling what the future definitely holds. It is possible for demand to shift, and middle aged people might begin to have interest in products originally desired by younger consumers and vice versa. It is more sensible for departmental store owners to thread carefully and purchase products only according to current demands in order to prevent wastage or expiry.
Moreover, the economy could go into a recession by the next decade and that would mean a decrease in retail sales, notwithstanding the number of consumers present at the moment. Statistics to show that the economy is actually doing well and that the economy will be stable in the next decade is needed to strengthen the claim that retail sales will increase as a result of the increase in the number of middle aged people.
In summary, the argument is not convincing as it stands. The author needs to provide evidence on the doubts listed in the above paragraphs. Only then will his argument be sound and compelling.