GMAT Essays (AWA)

I did the free Kaplan CAT today and this was my AWA. I am wondering if anyone here can give me an indication as to what level this is or what score it might get me? Cheers


The following appeared in the opinion section of a national newsmagazine:

"To reverse the deterioration of the postal service, the government should raise the price of postage stamps. This solution will no doubt prove effective, since the price increase will generate larger revenues and will also reduce the volume of mail, thereby eliminating the strain on the existing system and contributing to improved morale."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion, be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion. (used with permission from mba.com)

Essay
The author recognises a current problem in the postal service industry and is attempting to suggest a viable solution to this problem. The argument is not convincing however as it fails to clearly state the problem and provides no data to support its claims while making broad assumptions and incorrect inferences. The failure to build a convincing argument stems from a number of separate flaws outlined in more detail below.
The first major problem is the lack of clarity in the goal of the author. "To reverse the deterioration of the postal service" is extremely vague and sets the argument up to be inconclusive from the beginning. We are not enlightened as to what the actual deterioration is; it could be the their is more competition from private courier companies, it could be a change in societal trends, it could be internal problems from within the management and structure of the postal service as a company. Regardless of the probably multiple causes of this deterioration, we cannot accurately analyse solutions without even considering the causes.

The suggested fix for the proposed problem is an increase in postage stamp price. This suggestion is unjustified as a solution because there has been no current stamp price quoted, no suggested margon of increase and no forcasting or prediction of impact from the suggested increase. Without more specific information the reader cannot clearly see why an increase in stamp price would aid the problem. Furthermore the solution demonstrates a lack of critical thinking and understanding of the market. Raising the price on a good or service that is currently underperforming is usually counter productive. The author has made the assumption that people will still buy postage stamps at all with an increased price. Given the numerous alternatives that people have access to such as private courier companies and e-mail, it is more likely that the extra costs would rapidly speed up the deteration of postal service. The author has inadequately reasoned the price increase would lead to a decline in usage but that this would help the postal service by reducing strain on the workers. A more likely outcome would be an increase in strain on the workers as business decreases and their jobs come under threat. This would directly contribute to a decrease in morale, another outcome the author has failed to consider. The author has also used extreme language in the assumption made that a reduction on volume would 'eliminate' the strain on the existing system. No point has been made in the first place that the deterioration of the postal service has been caused by any strain. It seems more likely that the 'strain' is caused from pressure born out of a previously successful business model that is now underperforming.

The author has failed to take into consideration the actual causes of the deterioration of the postal service. This has lead to the suggestions for fixing it lacking relevance, insight and general usefulness. Had the author made a more clear distinction of what the problem actually is and made an effort to conisder the situation and market more througherly, more effective sollutions could have been suggested. Instead the entire argument lacks reasoning and fails to convince the reader.