GMAT Essays (AWA)

The following appeared in the personal finance section of a popular magazine:

"The average price of an acre of land in the United States is now 50 times what it was in 1970, and nearly 200 times what it was in 1920. The nation's population is projected to keep increasing, even as the amount of land remains constant. Therefore, people who are approaching retirement should invest heavily in real estate in order to ensure their financial security."

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The author of the argument claims that the people who are approaching retirement should invest heavily in real estate to ensure their financial security. He conclusion is based on the facts that the average price of an acre of land in United States is now 50 times what it was in 1970 and nearly 200 times what it was in 1920.Also he has mentioned that the nation's population is projected to keep increasing, even as the amount of land remains constant. Though his claim may well have merits, the author presents a poorly reasoned argument based on several questionable premises and assumptions and based solely on the evidence the author offers we cannot accept his argument as valid.

In the first place, the author simply arrives at the conclusion by analyzing the data which is too wide in the scope. The data compares present average price of an acre of land with that of 1970 and then compares the present average price of an acre of land with that of 1920. But what if the price was double in 1965 what it was in 1970 or it was three-fourths in 1976 of what was in 1970.

Similarly the people who are approaching retirement will be benefited by the analysis of recent price trends of a land, that will help them predict the value of a land five year's or ten year's down the line.

Also, the proposal also fails to consider the other means of ensuring financial security. There can be other kinds of investments which guarantee the financial security, such as mutual funds, fixed deposits, and purchasing gold and are not subject to change with time.

The author fails to consider that there are more high rise buildings for residential purposes even if teh land remaining is constant.

I sum, the author's argument is based on unsupported premises and unsubstantiated assumptions that render his conclusion invalid.
To strengthen his argument the author should do some more research on the price trends of land in last ten to twenty years, the pattern of increase and decrease, also he can categorize data on the basis of different locations in US.

If author truly, hopes to change his reader's mind on the issue, he would have to largely restructure his argument, fix the flaws in his logic, clearly explicate the assumptions, and provide evidentiary support. Without these things his poorly reasoned argument will likely convince few people.