Please Rate My AOA essay :)

[JuanDM]

Hi again, I'm taking the gmat next week and wanted to polish up my essay skills.

Any critiques / feedback greatly appreciated thanks!

Analysis of an Argument

It appears the easiest kind of occupation is that of the forecaster. If a dismal future is forecast and remedial action is taken, the forecaster can claim disaster was avoided because he or she was listened to. However, if the pessimism was well founded the forecaster can take credit for the ability to predict future events.

Discuss how logically persuasive you find the above argument. In presenting your point of view, analyze the sort of reasoning used and its supporting evidence. In addition, state what further evidence, if any, would make the argument more sound and convincing or would make you better able to evaluate its conclusion.

The Essay

The argument that forecasting is the easiest kind of occupation makes many assumptions, without providing strong factual evidence to justify such as statement.

First the author states that forecasting is the easiest occupation but fails to provide any evidence as to why they feel that way. They do not provide any evidence as to the training requirements for forecasting and imply, essentially, that anyone can do it. However, weather forecasting requires an education in meteorology and geography at the minimum, which may be difficult to some students. Additionally, financial forecasting requires an thorough understanding of economics and finance, which may also be difficult to some students. The fact that a degree or at least study of the above topics is needed to be able to forecast, nullifies the argument implied that anyone can forecast.

Secondly, if a forecast is dismal, which prompts some reaction that prevents a disaster, the forecaster is not entirely responsible for the heroic deed. The recent hurricane that struck the Houston area is evidence of that. Although the weather forecasters in this event made a accurate prediction for the hurricane's path, credit is due to the emergency authorities and local and state goverments for their reaction as well as plan envoked that help minimize the damage caused. The mass evacuation of over 1 million residents that were in the path of the hurricane, was not done by the forecasters, instead it was done by the local authorities in conjunction with state officials. Thusly the successful evacuation was a joint effort, with the forecasters having a minimal role aside from the prediction.

Lastly, the argument that if pessimism was well founded, the forecaster can take credit for their ability to predict overlooks the fact that forecasting is not an exact science since the weather can change at a moment's notice. An example of this is the recent storms that were experienced in the California area. Weather forecasters predicted rain through the entire week. However, it actually only rained two days, while the rest were sunny. This would then undermine the fact that although the forecasters were correct in predicting rain in the beginning of the week, by mid-week the change in the weather undermined the accuracy of their prediction and thusly their ability to correctly predict future events.

The author claims that forecasting is the easiest occupation, they make some assumptions, without concrete facts to justify their claim, and thusly provide a weak argument.