GMAT in a week - Please rate my AWA

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GMAT in a week - Please rate my AWA

by yuchoho » Fri Nov 08, 2013 12:10 am
The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm.

"Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker's consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker's consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee."

Discuss how well reasoned... etc.

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The argument states that because the trend has been that the consumption of coffee increases with age and that of cola decreases, we should switch investments from cola to coffee. Stated in this way the argument fails to mention several key factors, on the basis of which it relies on. The conclusion is extreme and based on a leap of faith rather than logical deduction. As such, the argument remains weak, flawed, and unconvincing.

The first claim made by the author is the study suggesting an average coffee consumption increases with age from 10 to 60, where as that of cola declines. This claim itself does not substantiate the author's conclusion for several reasons. For example, the total consumption of coffee and cola is not stated. It could very well be that, even after the full decline, the total consumption of cola is still higher than that of cola. In which case the market size of cola remains larger, and we should not switch investment. Also, more important of information would be the trend of total consumption of the products rather than the trend in age; if coffee consumption is increaseing with respect to consumer age but the total consumption as a whole is decreasing, it means that the market size is shrinking.

The second point the author makes is that the trend remained stable for 40 years. The implicit conclusion here is that the trend will continue in the future. There is absolutely no guarantee that this will be the case. For instance, a new study suggesting the health problem caused by caffeine intake might very well cause the decline of coffee consumption. Also, Cola Loca may invent new recipe for a next mega hit softdrink. With little information provided in the argument, the implicit conclusion does not hold.

Finally, the author claims that the number of older adults will increase as the population ages over next 20 years, hence the demand of coffee will increase and that of cola will decrease. However, this conclusion is logically flawed. Surely the current 20 year old will become 40 year old after 20 years, but current newborn babies will become 20 as well. In fact, since the birth rate is increasing and population growth is positive, there will be more younger generation than the old. Therefore, the correct inference is that the demand of cola will increase. Unless the author provides additional evidence that supports his conclusion, the claim renders not only meaningless but also misleading.

In conclusion, the conclusion drawn by the author is extreme and unsubstantiated. The author could strengthen his argument by providing more relevant information such as the study of trend of overall consumption of the products and population growth by generation. Until such information is provided, one is left with an impression that the argument is more of a wishful thinking rather than substantive claim.

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by David@VeritasPrep » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:59 pm
Score 5.5 or 6.0 (depending on how the few errors in grammar are received). The logic and reasoning is a 6.0 for sure.

The logic in your first paragraph is excellent. It is true that the evidence is only of the age-related trend of the average cola drinker, when the real question is one of total consumption and of the trend of total consumption over time.

You have a couple of grammar errors in this paragraph such as "more important of information" which should be something like "more valuable information would be." And you have only one spelling error in the entire essay - "increaseing." These do not detract. Excellent paragraph.

The second paragraph is very good as well. The point is well made and there seem to be few if any errors in this paragraph.

Third paragraph: It is actually "demand for coffee" The phrase "there will be more younger generation than the old" is not correct grammar. How about "the younger generation will outnumber the older one." Overall, Nice point here as well.

Conclusion is very strong.


Can I just mention one thing? You never addressed the main conclusion of the argument. Not that it stopped you from writing a great essay, but I wrote an article about this very prompt and about how people seem to never address the main conclusion. Here is the link! https://www.veritasprep.com/blog/2011/04 ... -the-gmat/


Really nice job!
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by yuchoho » Sun Nov 10, 2013 4:16 pm
Hi David,

Thanks for the thorough review! That score gives me confidence. I will tackle as many prompts as I can for the remaining little time I have until the exam date.

I have read your article. Easter Egg is an interesting concept. As AWA boils down to finding as many flaws as possible to argue against under time pressure, the Easter Egg mindset would surely add another dimension for me to score few more good arguments.

Thanks again.

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by David@VeritasPrep » Sun Nov 10, 2013 5:18 pm
yuchoho -

It is not that you have to find the hidden "Easter Egg" in order to get a good score - or even a perfect score - it is just that these Easter Eggs are nearly always business concepts and they are usually great fun to write about. So it is not necessary to find them, it just makes the AWA more fun.

Here is another prompt that I would judge has three or four Easter Eggs! Can you point out any things that they intentionally stated in order to create flaws?

The following appeared in a newspaper story giving advice about investments.

"As overall life expectancy continues to rise, the population of our country is growing increasingly older. For example, over twenty percent of the residents of one of our more populated regions are now at least 65 years old, and occupancy rates at resort hotels in that region declined significantly during the past six months. Because of these two related trends, a prudent investor would be well advised to sell interest in hotels and invest in hospitals and nursing homes instead."

If you (or anyone else!) writes an essay about this one I will gladly review it! Or if you just want to point out the Easter Eggs that is good, too.
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by Phoenix22 » Sun Dec 01, 2013 12:39 am
I received this topic while appearing for GMAT Prep today. Please find below my AWA. Kindly review

The argument proposes transferring investment from Coal Loca to Early Bird Coffee based on findings from studies. While drawing the conclusion argument has made several unwarranted assumptions and thus has several flaws.

Firstly, argument does not cite the source of these studies to confirm the validity of these claims. If the study was not done scientifically, it could lead to incorrect conclusions. For example, if sample selected for this study is from rural area which historically had more coffee consumtion than cola.

Secondly, we do not know whether coffee business is more profitable than cola business. Studies suggest that the number of old people will increase significantly, but this does not mean that the number of young people will decrease, what if there is populationg boom causing increase in number of young people as well. If this is the case it will result in increase in sales of cola as well.

It is also possible that young people who are addicted to Cola Local will keep drinking it even when they grow old. Old people in study were drinking less Cola Loca because they did not drink Cola Loca in their youth and hence were not addicted to it.

In conclusion, this argument does not convince transferring investment from Cola to coffee. Author of the argument needs to provide proof of studies indicating valid sample sizes.

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Re: GMAT in a week - Please rate my AWA

by muskansoni1 » Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:16 am
The argument claims that the firm should switch its investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee which is based on the premise that the average consumption of coffee increases with age and the average consumption of coca cola decreases with age. And because the number of adults will significantly rise in the next 20 years, they should invest in Early Bird Coffee rather than Cola Loca. Stated in this way the argument fails to take into account a few key factors that call the argument into question. Moreover, the author makes some unstated assumptions and unsupported facts for which there is no clear evidence. Therefore, the argument is unconvincing and falls apart at the seams.

Firstly, the author compares two different kinds of beverages, coffee on one hand and Cola Loca on the other, and illogically states the interest of the two among the growing population in the upcoming years. It might be possible that the young age group will increase significantly over the years and the cola will be more in demand.

Secondly, the author provides no statistical data to back up his claims about the trends of the two beverages among the population. It might be possible that the average consumption of both coffee and coca cola increases with the increase in population. So we cannot assume anything without any concrete figures.

Thirdly, it is not necessary that the consumption will remain the same over the coming years as it was according to the present statistics. So, we cannot base our assumption for the upcoming years on the present trends.

To conclude, the arguments fail to convince because of the faulty assumptions mentioned beforehand. The author could bolster the argument by providing concrete values and statistical data about the trends of the two beverages among the growing population. Another way by which the author could make the argument more convincing is by providing comprehensive information about the competitive environment and the external factors affecting the interest of the two. As it stands, the argument is unconvincing and remains open to counterarguments.