Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.
Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author's position that the meteorologists' claim cannot be evaluated?
(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
(B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
(C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
(D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
(E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.
How to eliminate A and D? Experts Please comment.
Thank you
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HSPA
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C for me
D: As we are presenting a 80:20 chance.. this option shall strength the author's terms
(Opposite answer)..
D: As we are presenting a 80:20 chance.. this option shall strength the author's terms
(Opposite answer)..
First take: 640 (50M, 27V) - RC needs 300% improvement
Second take: coming soon..
Regards,
HSPA.
Second take: coming soon..
Regards,
HSPA.
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HSPA
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Oops sorry it shall be B .. C is out of scope answer choice... 
wrong entry
last few words in A says that it is a prediciton and cause is unknown..
wrong entrylast few words in A says that it is a prediciton and cause is unknown..
Onell wrote:But OA is not C. How did you eliminate A?HSPA wrote:C for me
D: As we are presenting a 80:20 chance.. this option shall strength the author's terms
(Opposite answer)..
Thank you
First take: 640 (50M, 27V) - RC needs 300% improvement
Second take: coming soon..
Regards,
HSPA.
Second take: coming soon..
Regards,
HSPA.
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amit2k9
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Onell wrote:Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.
Paraphrase : There is no way to measure the accuracy of 'M' model for weather predictions.
Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author's position that the meteorologists' claim cannot be evaluated?
Meaning - methodology exists to measure the accuracy.
(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood. -- may/may not be true.Methodology might be a fluke too.Hence,POE.
(B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts. -- accompanied by clear gains --measurement available. Hold.
(C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.-- accuracy measurement not touched. POE.
(D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time. -- measurement methodology has not been discussed. POE.
(E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct. -- weakening choice. POE.
How to eliminate A and D? Experts Please comment.
Thank you
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chufus
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I think the answer should be A. The author believes there is no basis for evaluation. That means there is nothing to compare the model against. The author believes that since there is no comparison available, hence all mistakes will be blamed on the model itself. A gives us a basis for comparison.
1. Meteorologists believe that they can predict with real "ACCURACY"
Accuracy is important here since that is the difference between A and B and D. A is the only one that maintains a comparison that gives accurate results. Since we have accurate
A gives us exactly something to compare the results of the Mathematical Model with and with accuracy. B means we are on the way to accuracy but not there as yet. D, puts an 80% in as a dodger.
I would say A is a clear winner.
1. Meteorologists believe that they can predict with real "ACCURACY"
Accuracy is important here since that is the difference between A and B and D. A is the only one that maintains a comparison that gives accurate results. Since we have accurate
A gives us exactly something to compare the results of the Mathematical Model with and with accuracy. B means we are on the way to accuracy but not there as yet. D, puts an 80% in as a dodger.
I would say A is a clear winner.
