Critical Reasoning

As the subject line states, please answer with explanation - I got it wrong and I want to know why


The bus stop outside New Malden police station is visited by the 131 and 265 buses. A 131 bus stops there at exactly 4p.m. What can we conclude about the people waiting at the stop at 4.01p.m. the same afternoon?

I. They are probably not waiting for a 131 but we can't be sure.
II. They are probably waiting for a 265.
III. They are definitely not waiting for a 131.

A. I only
B. II only
C. III only
D. I and II
E. II and III

if u visit the bus stop as soon as 131 bus, there ll be those who probably waiting for 265. therefore case II.

but in one minute, chances are other persons might have arrived at stop for 131. we r not sure though. hence case I.

my pick D.

what was urs?
whats answer?

welcome to beattheGMAT!

I also chose D but the correct answer is A!! :"(

now that u say so A also seems promising...
hee hee

err what s the source? btw.

I got it from Mr Richard Bowles - a British Teacher who is the paragon of knowledge sharing -

https://richardbowles.tripod.com/gmat/cr ... itreas.htm

BTW a friend also agreed with option A but I don't quite buy his argument for option A - I'd like for someone to give further details as to why option A is correct

Thanks for your response though!!

This is NOT a typical GMAC question, but ... option II is not good. This is so, because the original stimulus didn't include the word ONLY.

The original says:

The bus stop outside New Malden police station is visited by the 131 and 265 buses.

However for that statement to work the way you'd like it to, it needs to read:
The bus stop outside New Malden police station is visited ONLY by the 131 and 265 buses.

Without the "ONLY", how do we know that there aren't also buses leaving for the circus and going to New Jersey?

If I say that I like Chivas Regal and Makers Mark, that doesn't preclude me from also enjoying Cutty Sark, Jameson's and Glennfiddich, eh?

For you non-alcoholics:

If I say that I like Led Zepplin and The Who, that doesn't prevent me from also enjoying The Beatles, The Stones and Bruce Springsteen, correct?


I hope that this helps.

But then... Option II doesn't say... "They ARE waiting for Bus no 265".. it says ... "They are PROBABLY waiting for bus no 265".. which means.. they may be waiting for other buses (not mentioned here) also... and we can safely assume that... Option II is correct

I also agree with D

kulksnikhil wrote:But then... Option II doesn't say... "They ARE waiting for Bus no 265".. it says ... "They are PROBABLY waiting for bus no 265".. which means.. they may be waiting for other buses (not mentioned here) also... and we can safely assume that... Option II is correct

I also agree with D

We are NOT in a position to say "probably." Probably means more likely than not.

Imagine the following:

Bob is at a department store where women's clothes and books are sold. Bob is not buying a book.

You might like to infer: Bob is probably buying women's clothes.
But you can't; for all we know, he's buying jewelry or radial tires or fertilizer or loose leaf paper.

On the GMAT, you are NOT able to use the word PROBABLY just because you'd think that it makes sense. Unless YOU KNOW that it is more likely than not, you CANNOT make that logical leap. Don't leap to conclusions.

If I tell you that I didn't vote for George Bush, that doesn't mean that I probably voted for John Kerry. (Maybe I voted for Bozo the Clown. Or John Lennon. Or Harpo Marx. Or perhaps I didn't vote at all)

It's also worth pointing out that GMAT Critical Reasoning is not a guessing game or a debate. (Frankly you don't get to AGREE or not.) The word probably makes Option II impossible.

As I said before, D is NOT a possible answer.

I hope that this sheds light.

The bus stop is visited by 2 buses- we do not know what time & at what frequency.
After the 131: if we use the principle of elimination-> there is no guarantee of success of II/ III. Hence I is the right answer as it states that chances are high that ppl are not waiting for 131 yet we can't be sure. Hope this helps

ogbeni wrote:As the subject line states, please answer with explanation - I got it wrong and I want to know why


The bus stop outside New Malden police station is visited by the 131 and 265 buses. A 131 bus stops there at exactly 4p.m. What can we conclude about the people waiting at the stop at 4.01p.m. the same afternoon?

I. They are probably not waiting for a 131 but we can't be sure.
II. They are probably waiting for a 265.
III. They are definitely not waiting for a 131.

A. I only
B. II only
C. III only
D. I and II
E. II and III

I think D is correct. probably just means chances are there...
Can anyone explain why not??