Critical Reasoning

The tobacco industry is still profitable and projections are that it will remain so. In the United States this year,the total amount of tobacco sold by tobacco-farmers has increased, even though the number of adults who smoke has decreased.
Each of the following, if true, could explain the simultaneous increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults who smoke EXCEPT:
A. During this year, the number of women who have begun to smoke is greater than the number of men who have quit smoking
B. The number of teen-age children who have begun to smoke this year is greater than the number of adults who have quit smoking during the same period
C. During this year, the number of nonsmokers who have begun to use chewing tobacco or snuff is greater than the number of people who have quit smoking
D. The people who have continued to smoke consume more tobacco per person than they did in the past
E. More of the cigarettes made in the United States this year were exported to other countries than was the case last year.

can anyone explain what OG want to express in its explanation for Op A

If the number of men beginning to smoke and the number of women quitting smoking during the year are equal,A would result in an increase, not a decrease, in the number of adults who smoke. Hence, A does NOT explain the facts cited and is the best answer.

but A says the number of women who began smoking is greater and not equal to men who quit, so A does explain.
imo E, because export is still the tobacco consumption, so it doesn't explain.

atulmangal wrote:The tobacco industry is still profitable and projections are that it will remain so. In the United States this year,the total amount of tobacco sold by tobacco-farmers has increased, even though the number of adults who smoke has decreased.
Each of the following, if true, could explain the simultaneous increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults who smoke EXCEPT:
A. During this year, the number of women who have begun to smoke is greater than the number of men who have quit smoking
B. The number of teen-age children who have begun to smoke this year is greater than the number of adults who have quit smoking during the same period
C. During this year, the number of nonsmokers who have begun to use chewing tobacco or snuff is greater than the number of people who have quit smoking
D. The people who have continued to smoke consume more tobacco per person than they did in the past
E. More of the cigarettes made in the United States this year were exported to other countries than was the case last year.

can anyone explain what OG want to express in its explanation for Op A

If the number of men beginning to smoke and the number of women quitting smoking during the year are equal,A would result in an increase, not a decrease, in the number of adults who smoke. Hence, A does NOT explain the facts cited and is the best answer.

@maihuna

Thats why the explanation i mentioned is copied from OG 10 explanation...and i didn't get the meaning nor i think Op A is correct so posted this q with explanation...may be some expert will help soon

Hi Atul,

We're looking for something that WON'T explain the paradox.

The paradox is: tobacco sales are up yet the number of adult smokers has decreased.

Choice A can't explain the paradox because even if the number of women who began smoking is greater than the number of men who quit, we still know from the passage that the number of adult smokers has decreased. Thus, choice A WON'T explain the paradox, must be correct, and to save time a Kaplan-trained student would move on to the next question (without looking at the other choices).

(The reason you might have an issue with (A) is that you might think that it contradicts the fact that the number of adult smokers has decreased. But it doesn't. After all, the number of WOMEN who quit can, by itself, be greater than the number of women who began smoking.)

imo E, because export is still the tobacco consumption, so it doesn't explain.

I can see why E is tempting you Nagendra.

The relevant sentence from the passage reads:

In the United States this year,the total amount of tobacco sold by tobacco-farmers has increased, even though the number of adults who smoke has decreased.

This means that I) tobacco sold by US farmers has gone up (whether or not the buyers are in US) and

II) the number of smokers WITHIN the US has decreased.

Testluv,

Thus, choice A WON'T explain the paradox, must be correct, and to save time a Kaplan-trained student would move on to the next question (without looking at the other choices).

wouldnt this be adangerous situation on test day, even if im so sure about option A.
i think to do this,i will need to borrow your brain for a day

adults = men + women;

men value = constant;
women's count = increase++;

But we need adutls = decreaing--;

So A contradicts the stem.

HSPA wrote:adults = men + women;

men value = constant;
women's count = increase++;

But we need adutls = decreaing--;

So A contradicts the stem.

Actually, according to choice A:

women who began smoking>men who quit

which doesn't necessarily contradict the passage's stated fact that adult smokers have decreased because (A) leaves open the possibility that:

women who quit smoking>>>men who began, in which case it is possible that:

people who quit>people who began.

rohu27 wrote:Testluv,

Thus, choice A WON'T explain the paradox, must be correct, and to save time a Kaplan-trained student would move on to the next question (without looking at the other choices).

wouldnt this be adangerous situation on test day, even if im so sure about option A.
i think to do this,i will need to borrow your brain for a day

Well, there's two ways to do CR in general:

1)"solve" the question before going to the answer choices, and then search for the answer choice that matches your solution.
2) not solve the question fully before going to the choices, and then use a protracted POE strategy. Using this approach, the test-taker can usually narrow it down to two choices, but then selects one over the other for unclear and uncertain reasons.

It is better to practice (1). Kaplan calls this "predicting and matching." While practicing CR, take an index card and cover up the answer choices until you feel a lightbulb go off in your head, and then look for the choice that matches your insight.

Whether to stop at a choice or move on depends on two things: a) the certitude of your prediction and b) how confident you are that it indeed matches the choice you think it is correct. But if you practice this technique, your predictions will grow stronger.

Sometimes, you make very tight specific predictions (assumption Qs) while in other question types you should make flexible predictions about the behavior of the correct answer. At any rate you shouldn't go to the choices without at least some idea of what the right answer should look like. And the question you should ask yourself when you look at the choices (or if you feel yourself drowning in an answer choice) should be "does this match my prediction?"

Testluv wrote:

HSPA wrote:adults = men + women;

men value = constant;
women's count = increase++;

But we need adutls = decreaing--;

So A contradicts the stem.

Actually, according to choice A:

women who began smoking>men who quit

which doesn't necessarily contradict the passage's stated fact that adult smokers have decreased because (A) leaves open the possibility that:

women who quit smoking>>>men who began, in which case it is possible that:

people who quit>people who began.

You can also pick numbers to show yourself that (A) doesn't contradict the passage:

women who began smoking = 10
men who quit = 5

So, according to (A), then, this would result in an increase of 5 smokers.

However, (A) doesn't talk about men who began smoking and women who quit. Therefore, it is entirely possible that:

men who began smoking = 5
women who quit smoking = 30

Under the scenario above, the number of smokers decreases by 25. Combining that information with (A) would still result in a NET decrease of 20 smokers.

Accordingly, (A) doesn't contradict the passage.

Now, the more important question to ask yourself is:

was it even worth thinking about whether (A) contradicted the passage?

In a paradox question, you're supposed to treat EVERYTHING as true: passage and answer choices. So unless, GMAT made a mistake, there can't be a contradiction. And during the test and while practicing official questions, the last thing you want to do is question the design of the question.