Critical Reasoning

Deb: It ' s worrisome that 80% of the people in this country know at least one person who did not finish high school.

Erik: But the average person has about one hundred different acquaintances, so, even if the normal high school dropout rate is only 10%, most people will probably know at least one dropout.

Erik ' s argument relies on the assumption that:

The normal dropout rate has remained very stable over time.

The dropout rate varies little from region to region across the country.

The number of people who know a dropout is usually over 80% of the population.

The statistics cited by Deb don ' t overstate the fraction of the population that actually does know a high school dropout.

Being personally acquainted with a dropout causes more anxiety about the dropout problem than do the dropout statistics themselves.

I didn't understand why correct answer is correct and why one of the wrong answers is wrong. Please explain, I will post OA later

imo B

most people would know atleast 1 dropout. So assumes uniformity

Is the answer d "The statistics cited by Deb don ' t overstate the fraction of the population that actually does know a high school dropout." ? This is since Erik doesn't refute Deb's claim, he just tries to explain it ??

I will go with 'C'. Pls post OA.

C is not relevant. Morover, the word over is a real dealbreaker.
IMO D

I would go with B. If the rate vary from region to region , there are chances that in one region there are no dropouts and that in that region people are not acquainted with any dropouts.

The normal dropout rate has remained very stable over time. - Even if the dropout rate has not been stable and there have been variations it does not affect the chances of most people knowing a dropout

The dropout rate varies little from region to region across the country. - Contender. Discussed above

The number of people who know a dropout is usually over 80% of the population. - Not necessary that 80% of the population should know a dropout over 80%.

The statistics cited by Deb don ’ t overstate the fraction of the population that actually does know a high school dropout. -Its okay to overstate, understating might have an issue.

Being personally acquainted with a dropout causes more anxiety about the dropout problem than do the dropout statistics themselves. - Out of scope

I go with C.

OA please.

OA is B, I am still unclear on this

any expert explanations from GMAT tutors ??

reply2spg wrote:OA is B, I am still unclear on this

hey honey, this CR is like the one in OG 11, let me check the page...page 490 question 76-77
its explaination is good, take a look at em

reply2spg wrote:Deb: It ' s worrisome that 80% of the people in this country know at least one person who did not finish high school.

Erik: But the average person has about one hundred different acquaintances, so, even if the normal high school dropout rate is only 10%, most people will probably know at least one dropout.

Imagine the following exchange:

Deb: I find it hard to believe that 80% of people in this country know someone born in China.

Erik: But the Chinese population is over 1 billon, meaning they make up 16% of people in the world. The average person has 100 acquaintances, so it's no surprise that one of those acquaintances would be Chinese.

This highlights the hole in Erik's logic. In the new version, it's clear that he is flawed because the majority of Chinese people live in China. Thus, it would be very surprising if 80% of people in THIS country knew someone from China, despite Erik's point being factually true.

So back to the original argument--imagine if the state of New Concordia had a 95% dropout rate, compared to 99% graduation in the rest of the nation. In that scenario, 80% of people in California, Alaska, or Massachusetts knowing a dropout would be a worrying phenomenon; it would indicate that the dropout rate is spreading from one state to the other 50.

Unlike the Chinese example, Erik's original argument makes a lot more sense. It is quite reasonable to assume that the dropout rate is relatively constant throughout the nation (though it does vary significantly; the most recent statistics I could find show state-by-state dropout rates ranging from 15% to 41%). But this is what makes this problem tricky--it doesn't matter if the assumption is reasonable, factual, or straightforward. It as A) necessary and B) unstated that for Erik's argument to hold true, high school dropouts cannot be geographically clustered or gathered. Thus, (B) is correct.

Change d subject n verb of official problem...n u hav a new question with NO CHANGE IN REASONING!!