GMAT next Sat, please review my essay

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GMAT next Sat, please review my essay

by SRGMAT » Sat Aug 28, 2010 6:26 am
Argument:

The following appeared in The Homebuilder magazine, a local publication with a focus on construction and sale of real-estate properties:

"According to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment."

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what changes would make the argument more logically sound.


My Essay:

Nowadays the construction industry is an important indicator on how the economic situation in a particular region and/or country is. "The Homebuilder" magazine published an article which states that a recent survey reflects that 70% of respondents indicate that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. As a result of this survey, the magazine concludes that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. I find this argument unconvincing due to several flaws.

First of all, the above argument does not mention any data about the people who participated in this survey. The only thing we know about these people is that they are readers of "The Homebuilder" magazine. Therefore, the magazine should present some data about these readers. We do not know if the readers are employed or unemployed, we also do not know their social status, their average income, their age, etc. People from different groups would answer in a different way. For example, a person that is currently unemployed and whose salary is in the lower side, will most likely not consider buying or building a new house in the following two years. The situation is very different for an employed CEO.

Furthermore, the magazine states that the referenced data comes from the most recent survey. However, the date when the survey was actually conducted is not mentioned. Between the time this survey has occurred and the time it was published many factors could have changed. We could assume that the survey was conducted in 2006 or 2007 and the results published in 2008. During this 1-2 years period of time there were so many changes in the United States and not only. Many people who were prosperous in 2006 and were planning to having immense houses, found out that they were jobless and they could not even pay their current rent or mortgage. Subsequently, the time when this survey was conducted is critical in making a conclusion.

On the other hand, the article might be right. The survey might reflect the true, and the construction industry might accelerate in the future. The magazine should give more details about its readers and the time when this survey has occurred. The knowledge about the background of the surveyed people and the financial situation in the country at the time would strengthen the argument and make it more credible.

In conclusion, I must reinstate that although the magazine might have a point in its argument, due to lack of supporting evidence, the argument remains weak and open for debate.


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by skprocks » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:17 pm
This analysis of an argument is truly well written.In terms of the Introduction and the second paragraph everything is OK.
However,there is scope for improvement in the remaining analysis.The assumptions need more elaboration.Probably you were tired by the time you reached the penultimate paragraph,and hence the small size :)

Scope for improvement in the penultimate para could be explained further.Barring a few occurunces of grammatical mistake this essay is fine.I am posting my analysis,do give your feedback :)

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by skprocks » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:50 pm
skprocks wrote:I am posting my analysis,do give your feedback :)
Surveys are a vital tool used to gauge market sentiment.Like other industries Construction industry also relies on surveys to forecast their annual and quarterly growth.But Construction industry is cyclical in nature and small events could lead to major market sentiment changes,so any survey shall be used cautiously.In the above argument the author claims that since 70% of respondents to a magazine survey indicated that they have plans to build or construct a house in the next two years,the construction industry is likely to offer substantial growth.In line with these premises the author concludes that the construction industry is a lucrative investment medium.Though his claim may well have merit, the author presents a poorly reasoned argument, based on several questionable premises and assumptions, and based solely on the evidence the author offers, we cannot accept his argument as valid.

The primary issue with the author's reasoning lies in his unsubstantiated premises.The author does not provide any information about the respondents of the survey.There is no information to know if the respondents have the wherewithal to actually commit an investment in construction.The sample size of the respondents is also missing.It could be possible that a sizable number of people responded to the survey.And the result of a survey with sample size below a certain level can not be treated as reliable.Macroeconomic indicators are missing from the author's argument.Such macroeconomic factors like current monetary and fiscal scenarios help paint a much more reliable forecast about any industry.These factors indicate the probability of availability of credit,and Credit is an important factor that contributes to the growth of Construction Industry.Thirdly,the author does not indicate the timeline when the survey was conducted.A survey conducted in the first quarter might have no bearing on the situation in the fourth quarter.The author's premises, the basis for his argument, lack any legitimate evidentiary support and render his conclusion unacceptable.

In addition, the author makes several assumptions that remain unproven. The author assumes that a significant proportion of the survey respondents would actually invest in the Construction industry and contribute to the construction industries' growth.In his argument, the author discounts the possibility of any major event in the World Economy in general that might pose threat to the growth of the Construction Industry.A Credit Crisis in one part of the world can deter customers in the other part to make investments,in this global economy.Growth in the Construction industry might not continue to accelerate as indicated by the author.It might remain stable and still make Construction industry an attractive avenue for investment.The author weakens his argument by making assumptions and failing to provide explication of the links between result of a survey conducted at an unknown time of the year and persisting growth rate in the Construction Industry, he assumes exists.

While the author does have several key issues in his argument's premises and assumptions, that is not to say that the entire argument is without base.Surveys do help people in forecasting the growth of a business.The author could provide the broad economic situation of the respondents to the survey.An indication of the annual disposable income of the respondents shall provide a good evidence to conclude about the possibility that the respondents would invest in the Construction Industry.Any Central Bank data regarding the prevailing conducive macroeconomic scenario would definitely lend sufficient evidence to the author's argument. Though there are several issues with the author's reasoning at present, with research and clarification, he could improve his argument significantly.

In sum, the author's illogical argument is based on unsupported premises and unsubstantiated assumptions that render his conclusion invalid.If the author truly hopes to change his readers' minds on the issue, he would have to largely restructure his argument, fix the flaws in his logic, clearly explicate his assumptions, and provide evidentiary support. Without these things, his poorly reasoned argument will likely convince few people.

P.S.I used the template here https://www.beatthegmat.com/argument-ess ... 38032.html , as is.And would like to credit the author of this template.Try learning the template rote.
All the best.


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