## people's prediction

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### people's prediction

by soumyopriyosaha » Mon Jan 25, 2010 11:22 pm
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
OA: D

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by mmon » Tue Jan 26, 2010 8:41 am
imo D

prediction = action ...>result
but conclusion states result due to diff actions is possible

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by money9111 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 2:53 am
DOH! I had it down to B and C, because I initially ruled out D. ::sigh::
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by onedayi'll » Wed Feb 24, 2010 12:06 pm
I nailed it down to B & C, but shocked to see D as answer.

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by Testluv » Wed Feb 24, 2010 8:05 pm
In abstract, the argument can be looked at like this.

The first sentence: "When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs."

if action X is not taken, then result Y will not follow. People think that the prediction (no Y) is correct when action X is taken and the result (Y) follows.

In other words, people think that the statement "No X, then No Y" is verified when both X and Y occur. The author's point is that Y's occurence can be due to things other than X (thier simulatenous occurence establishes a mere correlation but not necessarily a causal relationship).

Choices B and C are both outside the scope.

Choice B discusses the SELECTION of action--this is outside the scope as the argument is not at all about WHICH action to take.

Choice C discusses the GOODNESS of a predictive strategy--this is really outside the scope as the argument is not about good vs bad strategies.

If choice D is true--if it is impossible to tell apart a correct prediction/effective action from an incorrect prediction/ineffective action, then it makes more likely the idea that a "result admits of more than one interpretation."
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by KICKGMATASS123 » Thu Feb 25, 2010 5:09 am
Testluv,

I understand your simplified argument a bit. I definitely took 3 reads just trying to understand what the argument was all about.. even then.. all i could retain in my head was the conclusion when i got to the question.

Is there any easier way to understand the argument and a definite approach to pick the right answer? I know it's a stupid question.. but it took be ages to understand the argument 60%.

Sucks!

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by okigbo » Thu Feb 25, 2010 7:48 am
Is this an official GMAT question?

Found it to be really complicated.

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by agautam » Mon Dec 26, 2011 7:13 pm
The way i was able to get to the right answer in 3 min was by sticking very very close to the conclusion and to the passage. I was not able to get that y D was right but I was abl eto figure out the rest were untrue.

After reading the explainaion I have been able to understand y D is right

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by Sharma_Gaurav » Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:14 pm
@ testluv I did not at all understood this question and option D.
how can you just conclude in one like saying - hence more than one intrepretation.

Please some expert comment on this and make it more clear, I did not get why D is the OA.

As OA i have got is C

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by [email protected] » Thu Feb 02, 2012 11:10 pm
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

Testluv is correct and thanx to him for a wonderful explanation!!! It took a lot of time in understanding the stimulus and then Option D.

I will try to explain this in simple terms;

Basically the stimulus is an abstract concept as it talks about people's beliefs...

It says that many people have the belief that when a particular action will take place only then a certain result will take place...
that means if you do X then you would get Y. The main idea abstractly is that till that time interval those people are not able to see the other approaches or the right options. It is only after they reach the point Y and then they feel that there were other right actions (more than one interpretation) to reach the point Y. If this is the conclusion, then what would be the premise to strengthen it even further.

If I say actually that those people cannot distinguish between correct actions and results from incorrect actions and incorrect results that means they are not aware of a certain things and hence the argument is strengthened even further...

That is why initially options B and C look right but when you dig deeper into the argument, you actually feel that the options B and C are actually out of scope. That is why I said initially that the argument is abstract.

I hope this explanation really helped you, this was what I could understand...
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by Karishma BL » Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:59 pm
soumyopriyosaha wrote:When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
OA: D
Let's try to simplify the abstract discussion with an example:

"When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken,"

Prediction: You will not get 700+ in GMAT (certain result) unless you study hard (certain action)

"they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs."

You study hard. You get 700+ in GMAT.
You learn that the prediction is correct.

"On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation."

700+ score admits of more than one interpretation. You may not be able to say that the prediction is correct. You may not be able to say that hard work got you 700+ score.

We need to strength this conclusion.

(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.

The goal of the action would presumably be "the result". The conclusion says that there is a specific result. Doesn't help in strengthening the conclusion.

(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.

Past situations are irrelevant to the argument. A prediction is made on an action leading to result. The action is already specified. How we arrived at "study hard" is irrelevant here.

(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.

This says that several trials are required to find whether the prediction is true. Our conclusion says that the prediction may not be true at all. Hence this option doesn't strengthen the conclusion either.

(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.

(D) says that we may not be able to say what "hard work" is. Whether someone worked hard or not cannot be distinguished. If that is the case, then it is true that 700+ score admits of more than one interpretation.

(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

Context of the prediction is out of scope.