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Pls explain

This topic has 2 expert replies and 0 member replies
prachi18oct Master | Next Rank: 500 Posts
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Pls explain

Post Tue May 26, 2015 10:29 am
Elapsed Time: 00:00
  • Lap #[LAPCOUNT] ([LAPTIME])
    Guidebook writer: I have visited hotelsthroughout the
    country and have noticed that in those built before
    1930the quality of the original carpentry work is
    generally superior to that in hotels built afterward.
    Clearly carpenters working on hotels before 1930
    typically worked with more skill, care, and effort than
    carpenters who have worked on hotels built
    subsequently.
    Which of the following, iftrue, most seriously weakens
    the guidebook writer's argument?
    (A) The quality of original carpentry in hotels is
    generally far superior to the quality of original
    carpentry in other structures, such as houses
    and stores.
    (B) Hotels built since 1930 can generally
    accommodate more guests than those built
    before 1930.
    (C) The materials available to carpenters working
    before 1930 were not significantly different in
    quality from the materials available to
    carpenters working after 1930.
    (D) The better the quality oforiginal carpentry in a
    building, the less likely that building is to fall into
    disuse and be demolished.
    (E) The average length of apprenticeship for
    carpenters has declined significantly since 1930.

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    Post Tue May 26, 2015 10:57 am
    This question is testing a logical error known as Survivorship Bias. The writer is discussing hotels built before 1930 that the writer has personally visited, but then draws a conclusion about the quality of workmanship in all hotels built before 1930. But if only the good hotels have survived - if all the bad hotels were demolished - then the writer will get an unfair impression of the quality of older hotels, since he or she is only seeing the best ones. That's why D is the answer here.

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    Thanked by: prachi18oct
    Post Tue May 26, 2015 11:45 am
    prachi18oct wrote:
    Guidebook writer: I have visited hotelsthroughout the
    country and have noticed that in those built before
    1930the quality of the original carpentry work is
    generally superior to that in hotels built afterward.
    Clearly carpenters working on hotels before 1930
    typically worked with more skill, care, and effort than
    carpenters who have worked on hotels built
    subsequently.
    Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens
    the guidebook writer's argument?
    (A) The quality of original carpentry in hotels is
    generally far superior to the quality of original
    carpentry in other structures, such as houses
    and stores.
    (B) Hotels built since 1930 can generally
    accommodate more guests than those built
    before 1930.
    (C) The materials available to carpenters working
    before 1930 were not significantly different in
    quality from the materials available to
    carpenters working after 1930.
    (D) The better the quality oforiginal carpentry in a
    building, the less likely that building is to fall into
    disuse and be demolished.
    (E) The average length of apprenticeship for
    carpenters has declined significantly since 1930.
    The premise is about a very limited SAMPLING: hotels that the guidebook writer has visited.
    The conclusion is about the WHOLE: all hotels built before 1930.

    The writer assumes that what is true for the SAMPLING is true for the WHOLE.
    To weaken the conclusion, the correct answer choice will show that sampling ≠ whole.

    Answer choice D: The better the quality of original carpentry in a building, the less likely that building is to fall into disuse and be demolished.
    Implication:
    The country's poorly constructed hotels have probably been demolished.
    Clearly, the guidebook writer could not have visited these hotels.
    Thus, the sampling (the hotels that the writer has visited) ≠ the whole (all hotels built before 1930).

    The correct answer is D.

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    Thanked by: prachi18oct
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