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geetanjalirawat · Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:09 am

The following appeared in The Homebuilder magazine, a local publication with a focus on construction and sale of real-estate properties:

“According to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what changes would make the argument more logically sound.

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The author concludes that the construction industry will grow in the near future and hence earn huge profit. So it is best idea to invest in this industry. However, the conclusion is decidedly difficult to backup the conclusion. The author only mentions about the construction of the new homes. The argument ultimately rests upon the large number of the unsupported assumptions. Without further evidence, the argument will remain unconvincing.

The first major assumption is that The Homebuilder magazine is a publication that focuses mainly on the construction and sale of real estate properties. According to the author, this is the industry which continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment. It is impossible to tell about the benefits/losse of other industries. It can be true that investing in some other industry can lead to more profit.In order to show that the construction and sale of real estate properties is a real profitable industry, the author must show the comparison of the growth chart of the above said industry.

Whether the survey comprises of the population of the city, country or it is limited to just the reader of the The Homebuilder magazine is another example of unsupported assumption. The author offers no evidence about the counts of the people in the survey. It could be that the survey was taken of only 100 person or less or more. without an exact number of the person taking the survey, the conclusion can not be depended upon the percentage alone.

The final assumption is that the market would be same in the future. However, the argument made by the author is unconvincing as it now stands. The argument need more number of evidence to show that there would not be any upside and downside in the market in the coming future. The argument need large amount of additional evidences to be more credible. Specifically, the complete analysis of the near future, the count of the exact people taking the survey and some comparative study with some other industry, by which it could be identified that the construction industry will reap a benefit of the investment.

Thanks in advance

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gmatmachoman · Wed Nov 04, 2009 9:31 am

Hey Geetanjali,

I read ur argument..It was logical with valid points.
I am bit apprehensive about the tone.I felt it is " very strong".Hope u culd moderate that one so that the reader doesnt get off-handed.

You could mention the role of public sector banks that would grant loans at optimal rates which shall entice potential customers & investors.

Maybe u could add some renowed third party ( say a renowned consulting firm /govt recognised institutions)has vaildated the imminent growth in realty sector.

Over all,U culd add some "specific" supporting advances rather be "very generic".

Plz take this as my review only.

Rgds
Govardhan.R

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geetanjalirawat · Thu Nov 05, 2009 7:12 am

Thanks for the suggestion.

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