• Economist Test Prep
    Free Trial & Practice Exam
    BEAT THE GMAT EXCLUSIVE

    Available with Beat the GMAT members only code

    MORE DETAILS
    Economist Test Prep
  • Kaplan Test Prep
    Free Practice Test & Review
    How would you score if you took the GMAT

    Available with Beat the GMAT members only code

    MORE DETAILS
    Kaplan Test Prep
  • Veritas Prep
    Free Veritas GMAT Class
    Experience Lesson 1 Live Free

    Available with Beat the GMAT members only code

    MORE DETAILS
    Veritas Prep
  • Magoosh
    Magoosh
    Study with Magoosh GMAT prep

    Available with Beat the GMAT members only code

    MORE DETAILS
    Magoosh
  • PrepScholar GMAT
    5 Day FREE Trial
    Study Smarter, Not Harder

    Available with Beat the GMAT members only code

    MORE DETAILS
    PrepScholar GMAT
  • Target Test Prep
    5-Day Free Trial
    5-day free, full-access trial TTP Quant

    Available with Beat the GMAT members only code

    MORE DETAILS
    Target Test Prep
  • Varsity Tutors
    Award-winning private GMAT tutoring
    Register now and save up to $200

    Available with Beat the GMAT members only code

    MORE DETAILS
    Varsity Tutors
  • EMPOWERgmat Slider
    1 Hour Free
    BEAT THE GMAT EXCLUSIVE

    Available with Beat the GMAT members only code

    MORE DETAILS
    EMPOWERgmat Slider
  • e-gmat Exclusive Offer
    Get 300+ Practice Questions
    25 Video lessons and 6 Webinars for FREE

    Available with Beat the GMAT members only code

    MORE DETAILS
    e-gmat Exclusive Offer

Please help me rate my argument essay

This topic has 3 member replies
bimmer116 Newbie | Next Rank: 10 Posts
Joined
30 Sep 2010
Posted:
6 messages

Please help me rate my argument essay

Post Wed Dec 15, 2010 12:12 pm
Elapsed Time: 00:00
  • Lap #[LAPCOUNT] ([LAPTIME])
    Hi guys,

    First time post here but a long time reader. Long story short I have my exam this sat and wanted to see where I stand on the AWA. If you guys can please help me rate my essay I would greatly appreciate it.

    Thanks,

    Mike

    Topic 490: The following appeared in the editorial section of a daily newspaper. "Although forecasts of presidential elections based on opinion polls measure current voter preference, many voters keep changing their minds about whom they prefer until the last few days before the balloting. Some do not even make a final decision until they enter the voting booth. Forecasts based on opinion polls are therefore little better at predicting election outcomes than a random guess would be." Discuss how well reasoned . . . Etc.


    The effectiveness of using presidential election opinion polls as forecasts of the election out come has become a hotly debated topic in the United States as of late. Some believe that the forecast offers the public a general idea of the election outcome while some others perceive the opinion poll as rather ineffective for its intended purpose. In the preceding statement, the author states that due the undecisive natures of the voters, forecasts based on opinion polls are therefore no better at prediction the outcome than a random guess would be. Though his claim may have merit, the author presents a poorly reasoned argument, based on unsupported assumptions and reasons. Until the author can provide support for these details, readers should not proceed with his recommendations.

    The primary assumption that the author makes is that he assumes the sole purpose of the election poll is to predict the outcome of the elections. There are ,in fact several notable usage for the election poll other than for forecast. According to the most recent issue of TIMES magazine, they mentioned that while notable for its ability to forecast election outcomes, election polls often bring awareness to the voters to participate in the voting process. If the author were to acknowledge the other usages of the election poll while making the its primary role as a election predictor, he can better support his claim.

    In addition, the author stated that many voters change their mind about who to vote until the last few days before the balloting. This is simply claim without support, many voters are staple voters of their party, for example in the recent poll done by the economist magazine, 70% of would be voters already made up their minds of who to vote a month ahead of the actual election. The author should provide more data or cite polls that prove his claim that many voters are undecided.

    Furthermore, the author discuss that some voters do not even make a final decision until they enter the voting booth. While this may be true, the portion of voter that behave this way are not the majority. In the same survey done by the economist it was stated that only 5% of the to be voters have not yet made up their mind and might not be decided until the election day. The author should note that although some people are still undecided the proportion of these people to the whole voting population should be taken into account.

    In sum, the author’s illogical argument is based on unsupported reasons and assumptions that render his conclusion invalid. Until the author fix his flaw in reasoning and further explicate his assumptions and provide evidentiary support, his poorly constructed argument will likely convince few people.

    Need free GMAT or MBA advice from an expert? Register for Beat The GMAT now and post your question in these forums!
    arora007 Community Manager
    Joined
    17 Aug 2009
    Posted:
    1049 messages
    Followed by:
    27 members
    Thanked:
    51 times
    Target GMAT Score:
    XYZ
    GMAT Score:
    670
    Post Thu Dec 16, 2010 10:11 pm
    Mike the essay is almost flawless. The idea - organized. The language - well balanced. The use of indicator words(picked up by the software "In addition," , "Furthermore," , "In sum," etc. ) - correct. A few spaces of indentation is all what I would have liked to add to each paragraph. I guess I will rate you a 5.5 if not a 6.

    _________________
    http://www.skiponemeal.org/
    http://twitter.com/skiponemeal
    Few things are impossible to diligence & skill.Great works are performed not by strength,but by perseverance

    pm me if you find junk/spam/abusive language, Lets keep our community clean!!

    bubblehead0922 Junior | Next Rank: 30 Posts Default Avatar
    Joined
    14 Jul 2016
    Posted:
    19 messages
    Post Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:03 am
    Can someone please help me with my confusion on this prompt?

    I face a dilemma here. In this argument, the author contends that forecast based on opinion polls has no better predicting value on election outcome than a random guess. It seems to be true according to the latest presidential election. But I read it somewhere saying we have to go against whatever the argument concludes. I feel that I could only attack the illogical reasoning of this argument rather than its conclusion. Can I agree with its conclusion but attack its illogical reasoning in my AWA writing?

    Thx for your time in advance.

    bubblehead0922 Junior | Next Rank: 30 Posts Default Avatar
    Joined
    14 Jul 2016
    Posted:
    19 messages
    Post Thu Jan 12, 2017 1:55 pm
    Please rate my writing with the concern mentioned above.

    The editor contends that forecasts based on opinion polls have little better value in predicting election outcomes that a random guess would be, because many voters are indecisive. This argument is poorly constructed with unsubstantiated assumptions, vague terms, and illogical reasoning.

    To begin with, the most conspicuous flaw is that the argument draws its conclusion based on an unsubstantiated assumption. It would be true that there are voters who may changes their preference until the last minutes of the balloting. However, the author fails to establish that these indecisive voters contribute to the opinion polls. Clearly, it is reasonable to believe that the voters who are uncertain about their decision on the election would be reluctant to involve in the opinion polls. Therefore, without any evidentiary support on how indecisive voters influence the results of opinion polls, it is invalid to doubt the accuracy of the forecasts of presidential polls.

    Furthermore, this argument unfortunately involves some ambiguous terms in its contentions. The author claims that many voters keep changing their minds until the last few days before the balloting and some do not even make a final decision until they enter the voting booth. Many and some could mean 100 or 100,000. The editor neither defines the actual amount of indecisive voters nor mentions whether the proportion of these voters is great enough to change the result of presidential election, leading the conclusion unwarranted.

    Finally, the demographic characteristics of those indecisive voters are never provided. Since the result of presidential election is composed of votes by states rather than individuals, the opinion of majority in each state is more important than the opinion of each individual. For example, the voters who change their minds back and forth may more likely come from rural areas of certain states with low education backgrounds. As a result, the possibility of such indecisive voters in affecting the result of the state vote may only, if not at all, occurs in a few states that hold minor number of votes. The reasoning of this argument is vulnerable to the criticism that the demographic feature of the indecisive voters result in little impact of such voters on the result of presidential election.

    In sum, the reasoning of this argument is illogical and far-fetched. To better evaluate its conclusion, the author should provide some concrete information on the demographic feature of these indecisive voters and whether the proportion of such voters can affect the result of presidential election. The argument would be strengthened, if the author were to concede that the forecasts based on the opinion polls might not always be reliable due to the way of opinion polls conducted, rather than strongly stating that they are little better at predicting election outcomes than a random guess would be.

    Best Conversation Starters

    1 Vincen 180 topics
    2 lheiannie07 61 topics
    3 Roland2rule 54 topics
    4 ardz24 44 topics
    5 VJesus12 14 topics
    See More Top Beat The GMAT Members...

    Most Active Experts

    1 image description Brent@GMATPrepNow

    GMAT Prep Now Teacher

    155 posts
    2 image description Rich.C@EMPOWERgma...

    EMPOWERgmat

    105 posts
    3 image description GMATGuruNY

    The Princeton Review Teacher

    101 posts
    4 image description Jay@ManhattanReview

    Manhattan Review

    82 posts
    5 image description Matt@VeritasPrep

    Veritas Prep

    80 posts
    See More Top Beat The GMAT Experts