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Handicapping Your Shot At A Top School

by John Byrne on May 1st, 2012
Covering all that matters in the business school world, with in-depth analysis of B-school rankings and full-time MBA programs.
Posted in
  • Admissions Consulting
  • Extracurriculars
  • GMAT
  • GPA
  • MBA Admissions
  • Resume
  • Work Experience

When this 26-year-old woman was an undergraduate student, she lost a parent to cancer. With a 3.6 grade point average and a 760 GMAT, she now works for a non-profit that helps cancer patients but wants an MBA to move into a larger management role.

After spending three years as an analyst for a bulge bracket investment banking firm, this 25-year-old man is now on a Fulbright scholarship in China working with underprivileged children. He played varsity basketball all four years during college and has run a marathon twice. Now he wants an MBA to help him transition to an international investment fund.

He works in Asia as a consultant with a top-tier strategic consulting firm. With a 770 GMAT and a 3.2 GPA, this 28-year-old Asian male hopes to get an MBA to move his career forward but worries whether his low GPA and age will prevent him from getting into a top MBA program.

What these would-be MBA candidates share in common is the goal to get into one of the world’s best business schools. Do they have the raw stats and experience to get in? Or will they get dinged by their dream schools?

Sanford “Sandy” Kreisberg, founder of MBA admissions consulting firm HBSGuru.com, is back again to analyze these and a few other profiles of actual MBA applicants who have shared their vital statistics with Poets&Quants.

As usual, Kreisberg handicaps each potential applicant’s odds of getting into a top-ranked business school. If you include your own stats and characteristics in the comments on Poets & Quants, we’ll pick a few more and have Kreisberg assess your chances in a follow-up feature.

(Please add your age and be clear on the sequence of your jobs in relaying work experience. Make sure you let us know your current job.)

Sandy’s assessment: 

 Ms. Non-Profit Health Care

  • 760 GMAT (Q77%, V99%)
  • 3.6 GPA
  • Undergraduate degree in liberal arts and a foreign language from a top 50 liberal arts college
  • “My college GPA lower than what I’m capable of — I had a parent who was diagnosed with and then died from cancer during this time. I was also working 30-40 hours a week in various editorial board roles for the student paper, culminating in a year as editor-in-chief”
  • Work experience includes two and one-half years in a public relations firm and a year and one-half in a development job for a small non-profit that helps cancer patients; have been promoted to director of development
  • Extracurricular involvement on the student newspaper at college
  • Goal: To move into a management role in a larger cancer-related non-profit or hospital
  • “I’m not cut out for a direct care role, but I want to be able to use my marketing/fundraising/management skills to help organizations who help people dealing with disease.”)
  • 26-year-old female

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 20% to 30+%
Wharton: 30% to 35%
Stanford: 10% to 15%
Columbia: 40%+
Chicago: 50%+
Kellogg: 60+%

Sandy’s Analysis: Well, your stats are fine, even the 77% Quant on your 760 GMAT, and 3.6 at an OK liberal arts college. The ‘trouble’ with you, to the extent there is any, is your career and goals.  A lot will turn on how your current ‘small’ non-profit is perceived by adcoms (and to some degree, the size and pedigree of your first job with the PR agency).

In order to get into Harvard or Wharton, you are going to have to up your game in terms of goals and impact. They don’t see themselves as turning out Development Directors or managers for small organizations, as you seem to intuit (“eventually move into a management role in a larger cancer-related non-profit or hospital.”)  What you need to do is identify the type of roles you want, and even find out the people who are doing it, and whether or not they have a MBA.

You need to say, “I admire Person 1 who is Director of ___ at the USA Cancer Society and has changed the way that organization has done 1 and 2, and I admire Person 2 at Health Care Org and how she was able to touch more lives. Given that you have a story of family loss to disease and work in two jobs, which are health care related, you might make an attractive candidate at H or W (not seeing this as Stanford somehow, work pedigree really counts there, and yours is not blue chip or funky enough, ditto schooling).

At schools like Columbia, Booth, and Kellogg, you would be strong on stats alone, and a compelling story is a plus. Booth goes for stories like this, as does Kellogg. Columbia goes for 760 GMATs and people who visit and show interest and apply before Thanksgiving. I’d say your chances are solid there.

Just start thinking bigger : You went to a small, 2nd Tier (or lower) liberal arts college, you’ve worked for what appear to be two small organizations, you seem over-determined to help people rather than have an impact on organizations. B-schools like to help people, too, but by way of strategy, innovation and improving organizations. That has to be your core pitch and that has to be how you describe what you have done so far, in terms of significant accomplishments.

You got a very sympathetic story, but you need to put on your organizational game face when talking about goals and passions.  You seem to be aware of that, but the profile note you wrote—viz, “I’m not cut out for a direct care role, but I want to be able to use my marketing/fundraising/management skills to help organizations who help people dealing with disease” sounds more convincing about care-giving than improving organizations.

When this 26-year-old woman was an undergraduate student, she lost a parent to cancer. With a 3.6 grade point average and a 760 GMAT, she now works for a non-profit that helps cancer patients but wants an MBA to move into a larger management role.

Mr. Would-Be Consultant

  • 700 GMAT
  • 3.7 GPA
  • Undergraduate degree in business from the University of Western Ontario’s Ivey School of Business
  • Undergraduate Degree: Richard Ivey School of Business, University of Western Ontario
  • Work experience includes two years at Kraft Food as a senior financial analyst and eight months at Loyalty One, working in international strategy and mergers & acquisitions on a growth business in Brazil
  • “Senior people within our division have gone Chicago and HBS but no one at my level has been fed into top B-schools”
  • Extracurricular involvement as vice president of finance for the Western Indo Canadian Student Association, event planning volunteer; post-college lead on networking committee at Kraft, mentor at KidsNow for troubled youth
  • Goal: To enter strategy consulting role helping companies develop consumer insights from big data
  • 25-year-old East Indian male

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 15%
Wharton: 20%
Stanford: 10%
Chicago: 30%
Kellogg: 40%
INSEAD: 50+%
London: 50+%

Sandy’s Analysis: This is going to be hard at Stanford and HBS because there is too much silver and not enough gold, although it is close. Ivy is fine school for both Harvard and Stanford, and a 3.7 is a fine GPA. HBS would be happy with a 700 GMAT if they otherwise loved you, but after schooling you become slightly less lovable to them.

At Stanford, kids do get in with 700 GMATs but not Indian males from Kraft. HBS is OK with Kraft for minorities and women and other stories of kids from non-traditional backgrounds and 2nd tier schools who are mainstreaming,  but that is probably not you. Kids who get into HBS from Ivy usually work for banks, private equity firms or top consulting companies or Canadian pension funds (Ontario Teachers Pension Plan comes to mind as a real feeder.)

The fact that you had been a vice-president or foot soldier in most of your extra currics seems, unfortunately, too typical of your resume in general, although your extras are solid.  The fact that your current firm, Loyalty One, has not fed candidates into top schools, and is in a currently unfashionable line of work (loyalty program metrics) — well, to adcoms, anyway — ain’t helping.

Other schools you mention, Wharton, Chicago, Kellogg, Insead and LBS are certainly in-line and take kids like you all the time. Your goals are fine, sorta, but using big data to help businesses as a consultant is a tricky area. That works in biotech, medical records, and safety. Loyalty programs are just scummy to adcoms, even though they probably are compulsive users themselves, given how much travel and lunching  they do. Leave loyalty of any kind out of your goal statement, except maybe as a reason why you love your dog.

Mr. Low GPA

  • 770 GMAT
  • 3.2 GPA (3.5 at community college and a 2.8 at UC)
  • Undergraduate degree in political science from a top University of California school (Berkeley or UCLA)
  • Work experience includes two years with a bulge bracket investment bank (IBD) and two years with major consulting firm (McKinsey, Bain or BCG) in Asia
  • Extracurricular involvement as
president of the Asian student club at UC, worked at a shelter in India, founded a
 student foundation for environmental conservation, recruiting and analyst
 committee member
  • “My issue: extremely
 low GPA and age”
  • 28-year-old Asian male (non-U.S. citizen)

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 15% to 25%
Stanford: 10% to 20%
Wharton: 20% to 35+%
Columbia: 40+%
MIT: 30% to 40+%
Kellogg: 30+%
Chicago: 30+%
Berkeley: 40+%
Michigan: 40+%
Tuck: 20%
Yale: 30%
INSEAD: 50%
London: 50%

Sandy’s Analysis: Well, getting a 790 instead of your current 770 on the GMAT is not going to make your GPA smell any better. Getting into Stanford from McKinsey, Bain, or BCG (MBB) for a 28-year-old Asian male is usually a matter of how friendly anyone at your firm is with Derrick Bolton, and how willing they are to help you. All the heavy breathing about how important the essays are (on Stanford website) notwithstanding (that means that the essay heavy breathing is a façade).  Sure, it would be nice if you met them halfway, and did not write absolute and mindless trash, and you will need to explain your cratering GPA from Community College (3.5, which ain’t stellar to begin with) to 2.8 at UCLA.

I’m amazed you got the IB job in the first place. HBS could wink at the GPA (and has in similar cases) if you get strong recommendations from your blue chip jobs and exploit what seems to be very solid extra currics.  As you note, age is also an overhang, if you are going to be 30 at matriculation, that is old for a banker/consultant. That could tip it against you unless the work fundamentals and extras are super solid.

Is there some reason you started at Community College? Are you first-gen college? Unusual family story?  All that is worth noting. Other schools are hard to predict. Wharton takes kids like you all the time, and the only issue is getting them to wink at GPA. Age is less an issue there, somehow. Ditto Columbia, you could goose your chances by applying Early Decision (I don’ t think you are getting into Harvard or Stanford. There’s just too much GPA and age baggage). MIT pretty much admits anyone with a pulse (especially a pulse at MMB) and 770 GMAT if you merely mouth their mantras about innovation and tech. Kellogg and Booth will want to understand your story fully, as will Tuck. INSEAD takes guys like you all the time as does LBS.  Yale may find this too weird for them, Haas and Michigan will be predisposed to say ‘yes,’ but you will need to convince them you are serious and they are not just one school on a long list, which they, in fact,  appear to be in the above long list.

Mr. Mandarin

  • 680 GMAT (plan to retake)
  • 3.3 GPA
  • Undergraduate degree from a Top 20 business school
  • Work experience includes three years as an analyst for a bulge bracket investment banking firm (“Great reviews and plenty of extra curricular experience (recruiting and analyst committees”); currently on a Fulbright scholarship in China, working with underprivileged kids to improve English proficiency in remote areas of country
  • Extracurricular involvement as a varsity basketball player for four years in college and a marathon runner twice
  • Goal: To work for an international investment fund with a focus on Asia or start my own business with focus on Asian investments
  • 25-year-old white male studying Mandarin

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 20+%
Stanford: 10%
Dartmouth: 30-40%
MIT: 30%
Duke: 50%
Chicago: 50%
Berkeley: 50%

Sandy’s Analysis: This is just too shaky (3.3 GPA, so-so GMAT, 2nd-Tier college) for Stanford, especially for a white, male. But despite all that, there is lots to like, including your varsity college career and Fulbright in China. Guys like you sometimes get into HBS if they like your BB firm, and your recommenders really go to bat for you. Goals make sense and flow nicely from career and Fulbright, so that is another plus.

You seem the Tuck type so my advice would be visit, make friends, show a lot of interest.  They really work for the grads, and have a lot of banking contacts, so that would be a real good match. MIT is more stats focused, although they are always happy to get a “manly-man” banker-athlete, but there is not much here they really go for besides that.

You could have trouble there, especially if ‘final’ GMAT is 700 or below. Duke and Chicago are strong possibilities because they like people like you (athlete, banker, China) enough so that the gap in your GPA stats (3.3 for you, 3.5 is average for them, and GMAT, ~700 for you,  they average 715) will not be a deal-breaker. Ditto Berkeley.

Mr. Australia

  •  720 GMAT
  • GPA in top 10% of cohort
  • Undergraduate degree in economics from a top Australian university
  • Work experience includes two summer internships in bulge bracket investment banking and a year in a part-time job in regional supply chain operations for a global luxury retailer; three years in consulting for a top firm (McKinsey, Bain or BCG)
  • Extracurricular involvement as President of two undergraduate student clubs, one running career and social events and the other running charitable community work projects; involved with my consulting firm’s LGBT network since graduation
  • Goal: To use MBA to round out my skill set and launch into a corporate development/strategy career in retailing or consumer goods
  • 25-year-old Asian male based in Australia

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 30% to 40%
Stanford: 25+%
Wharton: 40% to 50+%
Kellogg: 50+%
Columbia: 50+%

Sandy’s Analysis: This is a standard McKinsey/Bain/BCG consulting profile and as noted above, your chances at Stanford will turn on how many FODs (Friends of Derrick) you can lasso to push for you at your consulting firm. LGBT extracurrics are OK but not as good as having an impact beyond your own firm with  poor people, lepers, and minority kids. Schools value extra currics more when they have an impact beyond yourself, and while your LGBT work certainly does help others, it also helps you, especially if it is based at your firm.

Your extracurricular involvement in college, helping  “charitable community work projects,” scores higher. Chances at HBS depends on recs from firm and application execution.  Wharton takes guys like you all the time and Kellogg and Columbia are good back-ups.

As noted many times, apply to Columbia before December –and earlier if possible and go take the campus tour, they got a real schnoz for kids, like you, who are using them as a safety school, so that is why they like personal appearances and early apps.

Handicapping Your MBA Odds–The Entire Series

Part I: Handicapping Your Shot At a Top Business School

Part II: Your Chances of Getting In

Part III: Your Chances of Getting In

Part IV: Handicapping Your Odds of Getting In

Part V: Can You Get Into HBS, Stanford or Wharton?

Part VI: Handicapping Your Dream School Odds

Part VII: Handicapping Your MBA Odds

Part VIII: Getting Through The Elite B-School Screen

Part IX: Handicapping Your B-School Chances

Part X: What Are Your Odds of Getting In?

Part XI: Breaking Through the Elite B-School Screen

Part XII: Handicapping Your B-School Odds

Part XIII: Predicting Your Odds of Getting In

Part XIV: Handicapping Your MBA Odds

Part XV: Assessing Your Odds of Getting In

Part XVI: Handicapping Your Odds of Getting In

Part XVII: What Are Your Odds of Getting In

Part XVIII: Assessing Your Odds of Getting In

Part XIX: Handicapping Your MBA Odds

Part XX: What Are Your Odds Of Getting In

Part XXI: Handicapping Your Odds of Acceptance

Part XXII: Handicapping Your Shot At A Top MBA

Part XXIII: Predicting Your Odds of Getting In

Part XXIV: Do You Have The Right Stuff To Get In

Part XXV: Your Odds of Getting Into A Top MBA Program

Part XXVI: Calculating Your Odds of Getting In

Part XXVII: Breaking Through The Elite MBA Screen

Part XXVIII: Handicapping Your Shot At A Top School

Part XXIX: Can You Get Into A Great B-School

Part XXX: Handicapping Your Odds of Getting In

Part XXXI: Calculating Your Odds of Admission

Part XXXII: Handicapping Your Elite MBA Chances

Part XXXIII: Getting Into Your Dream School

If you liked this article, let John Byrne know by clicking Like.

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