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Mastering Indirect Tactics

by Economist GMAT on March 2nd, 2012
16 comments
Click here to learn more about The Economist GMAT Tutor and its products & services.
Posted in
  • GMAT Math
  • Permutations/Combinations
  • Probability
  • Problem Solving

Few problems strike fear in the heart of test-takers quite like combinations problems. The usual arsenal of test-taking strategies–plugging-in, ball-parking, process of elimination–totally fails us when we tackle these questions.

The worst ones often include complications that make a difficult problem even more dreadful. Take this question for instance:

How many 5 person committees chosen at random from a group consisting of 3 men, 5 women, and 2 children contain at least 1 woman?

A) 250
B) 251
C) 252
D) 275
E) 300

What makes this problem difficult is the extra restriction that the committee must contain at least 1 woman. What we need is a powerful test-taking strategy that can help break up this complicated problem into smaller, simpler questions. Ideally, these “component parts” could then be joined together to allow us to indirectly calculate the original scenario. There is, in fact, a technique which can do exactly just that.

The key to solving this problem is realizing that the “Total” number of committees (committees with any number of women) is equal to the number of “Good” committees (those with at least 1 woman) plus the number of “Forbidden” committees (those with no women at all). In equation form, this would be:

C(Any Number of Women) = C(At Least 1 Woman) + C(No Women)

Upon re-arranging the equation, we see that:

C(At Least 1 Woman) = C(Any Number of Women) – C(No Women)

In other words, to find the number of committees with at least 1 woman, we can simply find the number of committees with any number of women, C(Any Number of Women), and subtract out the number of committees with no women at all, C(No Women). As it turns out, calculating the two components on the right side of the equation is far simpler than computing the value directly.

More generally, for combinations problems with complicated restrictions, we can often write the following equation:

C(Total) = C(Good) + C(Forbidden)

“Good” represents the desired combinations, “Total” represents all possible combinations, and “Forbidden” represents all combinations that are expressly forbidden. We can also re-arrange this equation to get:

C(Good) = C(Total) – C(Forbidden)

Now let’s return to our original committee problem and calculate the two sub-components:

To calculate the “Total” combinations, C(Total), we need to determine how many ways we can choose a 5 person committee out of a total of 3+5+2=10 people, ignoring gender and age. There are a total of 10 people, and we need to choose 5 out of that 10. Since all 5 members come from a single source (the group of 10 people), there is no replacement, and ordering does not matter, we can use the combinations formula: C(10,5)=(10!)/((10-5)!*5!)=252.

Calculating the “Forbidden” combinations is even simpler. If no women were allowed to be in the committee, we would need to find a 5 person committee out of the remaining 3 men and 2 children. In other words, we’d need to form a 5 person committee out of the remaining 3+2=5 people. With women excluded, the only 5 people left will all be in the committee, so there is only 1 way to form such a committee. (This informal observation agrees with the combinations formula, which would give C(5,5) = 1)

Using our equation, the number of committees with at least 1 woman is simply:

C(At Least 1 Woman) = C(10,5) – 1 = 251 (answer choice B)


When you take the GMAT, pay attention to the following hints that clue you in to using the Good = Total – Forbidden equation:

  1. The question stem contains the key words “at least,” which adds a restriction that makes direct calculation burdensome
  2. The “opposite” of the restriction (the forbidden scenario) is trivial to calculate

Many probability problems are simply minor variations of this same basic technique. The probability of the “Total” is simply 1, so that the equation reduces to P(Good) = 1 – P(Forbidden).

Now that you grasp this technique, you should have no trouble with mastering “at least” probability and combinations questions on the GMAT.

To review what you’ve learned, take a look at this week’s challenge problem:

A game at the state fair has a circular target with a radius of 10 cm on a square board measuring 30 cm on a side. Players win prizes if they throw two darts and hit only the circular area on at least one of the two attempts. What is the probability that Jim won the game?

A) 1-(9-pi)/9
B) 1-(18pi-pi^2)/81
C) (9-pi)/9
D) (9-pi)^2/81
E) (18pi-pi^2)/81

Find the solution and show your work in the comments below. In a few days, I’ll write up the answer for this problem.

If you liked this article, let Economist GMAT know by clicking Like.

RELATED ARTICLES

16 comments

  • Avanika on March 2nd, 2012 at 2:15 am

    Option (A)

    Reply to this comment
  • AbhiJ on March 2nd, 2012 at 10:03 am

    Option E

    Reply to this comment
  • AbhiJ on March 2nd, 2012 at 10:19 am

    P(W) = Probability of winning in one shot = 100pie/900
    P(L) = 1 - P(W)
    Required Probability = 1 - P(L)^2 = P(W) + P(L)*P(W)
    Both give the same answer.

    Reply to this comment
    • Ankur Singh on March 2nd, 2012 at 9:21 pm

      P(not hitting the circular area) = 1- (pie/9)
      So, p(not hitting the cir. area in both attempts) = (1 - (pie/9))^2

      p(hitting atleast once ) = 1 - (1-(pie/9))^2 = 1- ((9-pie)/9)^2
      its of the form 1^2 - x^2 
      on simplifying we get E.

  • Ankur Singh on March 2nd, 2012 at 9:23 pm

    AbhiJ is right

    Reply to this comment
  • Rijul on March 4th, 2012 at 10:09 pm

    P(Forbidden) = ((9- ╥)/9)*((9- ╥)/9) = (81-18 ╥ + ╥²)/81
    P(Good) = 1 - P(Forbidden) = 1 - (81-18 ╥ + ╥²)/81 = (18 ╥ - ╥²)/81

    Option (E)

    Reply to this comment
    • lak on March 7th, 2012 at 7:28 am

      can anyone explain how you got the expression (1-pi/9)???

  • Ankur Singh on March 7th, 2012 at 11:45 am

    Hi Iak,

    p(hitting the circular area) = (area of circle )/ (area of the square)
                                      = (pi * 10^2) / (30 ^ 2)
                                      = pi/9
    p(not hitting the circular area) + p(hitting the cir. area) = 1 
    So, p(not hitting the cir. area) = 1 - p(hitting the cir. area)
                                            = 1 - (pi/9)                        

    Hope its clear..!

    Reply to this comment
  • chandra sekar on March 11th, 2012 at 10:47 pm

    Hi, the answer is A...its very clear as p(at least)=1-p(nothing)=(1- (900-100pi))/900....hence it is (A).

    Reply to this comment
  • kirin on March 12th, 2012 at 5:13 am

    each failed try = (900 area of square - 100pi area of circle)/ (900 total area) => (900 - 100pi)/900 => (9-pi)/9
    no hits = 2 tries to throw dart. both have to fail for no hits.
    no hits = (fail try1) and (fail try2)
    no hits = (9-pi)/9 * (9-pi)/9 = (p-pi)^2/81
    no hits = (81-18pi+pi^2)/81 => 1 -18pi/81+pi^2/81
    win = 1 - no hits
    win = 1 - (1 - 18pi/81 + pi^2/81)
    win = 1 - 1 + 18pi/81 - pi^2/81
    win = 18pi/81 + pi^2/81
    win = (18pi-pi^2)/81 E.

    Reply to this comment
  • Master GMAT on March 12th, 2012 at 5:33 am

    Did you spot the keyword "at least"? If so, great -- this is a clue that we should try to calculate the answer indirectly using the equation below:

    P(Good) = 1-P(Forbidden)

    The "Good" outcome is if we hit the circular area at least once. The "Forbidden" outcome is if we miss the circular area on both attempts.

    First, let's start by calculating the forbidden probability:

    In this geometry probability question, the probability of a single dart hitting the circular area on a square board is simply the area of the circle divided by the area of the square board.

    Area of Square = s^2 = 30^2 = 900
    Area of Circle = pi*r^2 = pi*10^2 = 100*pi
    P(Hit on single throw) =  (Area of Circle)/(Area of Square) = (100pi)/900 = pi/9

    The odds of missing the throw is simply:

    P(Miss on single throw) = 1-P(Hit on single throw) = 1-pi/9 = 9/9-pi/9
    P(Miss on single throw) = (9-pi)/9

    The chance of missing both shots is simply this value squared:

    P(Miss both shots) = P(Miss on single throw)^2 = [(9-pi)/9]^2 = (9-pi)^2/81

    The chance of making at least one shot therefore becomes:

    P(Good) = 1-P(Forbidden) = 1-P(Miss both shots)
    = 1-(9-pi)^2/81 = 81/81-(81-18pi + pi^2)/81 = (18pi-pi^2)/81

    The answer is choice E).

    Reply to this comment
    • Pranav on March 25th, 2012 at 5:04 pm

      That was cool. Thank you very much.

    • avrgmat on July 8th, 2012 at 3:36 pm

      Really understood my mistake after going through this explanation. Thanks!

  • Jesse on March 13th, 2012 at 7:22 am

    Wayyyyyy too difficult of a problem to worry about getting to. 

    Reply to this comment
  • Scot on March 16th, 2012 at 1:32 am

    Isn't this way a lot easier?

    The odds of A or B or both A&B, if A and B are independent,which two dart throws are, is
    P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B)

    So, if A is dart throw 1 hitting the target, and B is dart throw 2 hitting the target, then P(A)=P(B)=pi/9
    and the odds of both of them hitting the target is
    P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B)=pi/9*pi/9, so

    throw 1 or throw 2 or both hitting the target is
    P(A) + P(B) -P(A)*P(B)
    or
    pi/9+pi/9-(pi/9)^2 = 2pi/9 -pi^2/81 = (18pi -pi^2)/81

    scot

    Reply to this comment
    • Martha on February 10th, 2013 at 12:30 pm

      This is a perfect example of KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid!).
      I struggled with this problem for a couple of hours, came came with the right formula but did not develop it to the end since I was too scared (i.e. stupid) to develop it to solution E. Merci beaucoup!

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